NL West Preview

Our last baseball preview comes after the second game of the regular season has already been played, but they happened in Tokyo so they don't really count. I hope you all enjoyed my previews. I tried to combine insightful analysis with sharp and witty humor all while staving off my hatred for David for making me do this. I'll be back when I feel like it. Don't wait up. Ladies and gentlemen... the NL West:

NL WEST

Arizona Diamondbacks
2007 Finish: 90-72, 1st, Lost to COL in NLCS
David’s 2008 Prediction: 85-77 (-5) 3rd

Josh’s Analysis:
The 2007 Diamondbacks were third worst in the National League in runs and gave up twenty more runs than they scored. Yet they still finished with a record eleven wins better than their expected win-loss tally. What does that mean? Yes, that’s right, glad you’ve been paying attention: they were lucky! And luck is not a repeatable skill (I’ve tried to convince David to make that our new motto to no avail). Arizona’s run to the NLCS was surprising to say the least. I tip my hat to GM Josh Byrnes who could have stood pat after building a team that reached the penultimate playoff series. Instead, he made a significant and fiscally responsible acquisition when he traded six prospects for Oakland’s ace Dan Haren. Haren is under contract through 2010 at the very reasonable price of $16.25 million… total. With that acquisition, the D’Backs now have one of the best one-two punches in baseball. Brandon Webb, who turns twenty-nine in May, already boasts a Cy Young award on his mantle and Dan Haren is already an elite pitcher and he’s just twenty-seven. Some might chide Byrnes for trading away young phenom Jose Valverde after his monster season but I applaud him for selling high. The Astros gave up three players for the closer including two that can help immediately (Chad Qualls and Juan Gutierrez), both of whom will compete with frontrunner Brandon Lyon for the vacated closer position.

While Byrnes made some very significant moves insofar as his pitching goes, he basically stood pat with his lineup. I can’t really fault him for that. Though his lineup lacks a true superstar, he has a nice mix of steady production guys. That said, BJ Upton's younger brother Justin is at the beginning of what many scouts think will be a hall of fame career; he should be fun to watch. Arizona’s big power threat is sophomore center fielder Chris Young, who hit 32 homeruns in his rookie campaign. Young needs some work, particularly in plate discipline, but most scouts agree that he is a five-tool player with an extremely high ceiling. Seven of the Diamondback’s eight anticipated opening day starters put up at least ten homeruns in 2007 (Chad Tracy, was on pace for 16, but was limited to only 76 games due to injury). There’s a lot to be excited about for Diamondbacks fans, reigning NL Manager of the Year Bob Melvin has a nice collection of young, high-ceiling talent to work with and the D’backs should be a power in the West for a number of years. Still, in light of how much luck Arizona needed to finish where they did last year, combined with the fact that the West is looking like the NL’s toughest division means the snakes will need to see significant improvement from their young players, which I think they will get. I’m picking them to take the West, but in this division expect only a handful of games to separate first place from fourth.

Diamondbacks Questions:

1. Will Randy Johnson stay healthy long enough to rediscover some of the magic he had in his first stint in the desert? (Unlikely, he turns forty-five this season and his back has been a big problem for the last few seasons)
2. Will Dan Haren dominate the weaker National League? (Well, the league is weaker but that might be balanced by moving from a great pitcher’s park to a hitter’s nirvana, still I vote yes on proposition Haren)
3. Will Doug Davis get back to 200 innings? (If he stays healthy he should, he’s a workhorse)
4. Will Stephen Drew outperform big brother J.D. in 2008? (They both sucked last season, so one of them is likely to improve…Stephen is younger so my money’s on him)
5. Will this be Arizona’s year? (Probably not, but one never knows…)
   
   
   

Los Angeles Dodgers
2007 Finish: 82-80, 4th
David’s 2008 Prediction: 90-72 (+8) 1st

Josh’s Analysis:
When the talking heads discuss the big market teams that outspend the rest of the league trying to buy championships, they are typically referring to the Yankees, Red Sox and Mets (who boast a combined six championships and nine pennants since the realigning of the divisions in 1995). But they are also referring to the Dodgers, who are a permanent resident among the top six team payrolls since 1999. And for all that money spent they have exactly one playoff victory (in three appearances) since they last won it all in 1988. So is this going to be LA’s year? To win it all, probably not. To make the playoffs and maybe even win a game or two once there, could be! GM Ned Colletti made some good moves this winter, but none spoke louder than the pilfering of the winningest manager in the majors over the last twelve years. Hiring Joe Torre to manage the Dodgers was a clear sign that the team is going to be competing now.

As far as players go, there’s a lot to be optimistic about. The Dodgers outbid the Mariners for Japanese pitcher Hiroki Kuroda, a groundball specialist with a deceptive delivery. Since we’re talking about both a pitcher and a Japanese League transplant we’ll flip two coins to see if he’ll have a good season. Colletti also picked up perennial gold glove center fielder Andruw Jones this off-season. While I am entirely confident that Jones will return to form in 2008, and I do think it was a good risk for the Dodgers, I still say the fact that following a .222 season he commands a contract that makes him the fifth highest paid player in baseball by average salary is simply insane. Speaking of insanity, someone from the Dodgers organization needs to explain to me the thinking behind playing Juan Pierre on a daily basis. Pierre is such a bad baseball player that it is just plain criminal to allow him to clog up a roster spot when there are talented youngsters waiting in the minors for a chance to shine. The Dodgers would be better served by just swallowing nine million dollars a year and cutting him.

Good news! Nomar is already in mid-season form… his wrist is broken and he will be missing at least the first week of the season. All joking aside though, Penny, Lowe and Kuroda are a solid top three. Broxton is a very good reliever and Takashi Saito was one of the most dominating closers in baseball last season. Furcal and Kent make for a solid middle of the infield. Right fielder Matt Kemp had a breakout season and will look to build on that. Scouts love him and he has a nice compact swing. The Dodgers have a great mix of veterans and young talent and Joe Torre knows how to get the best out of both. They should be a fun team to watch this year.

Dodgers Questions:

1. Will Andruw Jones have a bounce back year? (Since I’ve already used the comeback player of the year joke twice now, I’ll just say there’s no way he doesn’t improve on his 2007 showing)
2. Will Nomar finally get back to 500 at-bats? (Surely you jest… he’s already injured!)
3. … How about Jeff Kent? (The oft-injured second baseman missed the mark by six in 2007, but he’s not getting any younger or healthier)
4. Will Juan Pierre continue to have a starting job despite being so criminally horrible that he is hurting the team? (Excellent question! Upper management has nearly fifty million invested in him and Torre is infamous in New York for continuing to play horrible players to the team’s detriment. See: Farnsworth, Kyle)
5. Will Torre keep his streak of thirteen straight playoff appearances alive? (If his team stays healthy I think there is an excellent chance)
   
   
   

San Diego Padres
2007 Finish: 89-74, 3rd
David’s 2008 Prediction: 89-73 (NC) 2nd (WC)

Josh’s Analysis:
I enjoyed the Padres collapse over the last two games of the season because it shined a glaring spotlight on something I have been saying for years: Trevor Hoffman is not the greatest closer of all time, simply the best saves compiler… and a bit of a choker to boot. Hoffman needed only to put away a .260 pinch hitter to close out a one run lead and clinch the wild card on the last day of the season. Instead he gave up a run scoring triple to Tony Gwynn Jr. and the Friars were forced into a one game playoff with streaking Colorado. In what became an instant classic, the Pods took a two run lead into the thirteenth inning and once again they called upon the all-time saves leader to notch the final three outs and send them to the postseason. But for the second consecutive game he blew the lead and the Padres were sent packing. Still, Hoffman is certainly a competent enough closer and Heath Bell and Cla Meredith are two of the best middle relievers in the sport (though they had a combined 161 appearances in 2007, so their arms may actually fall off in 2008).

San Diego has a very good pitching staff, anchored by perpetual Cy Young contender Jake Peavy, who won the NL triple crown in 2007. He has a good supporting cast in Chris Young and an ageless Greg Maddux, but they are two of the worst pitchers in the majors at keeping runners close, and with catcher Josh Bard throwing out a paltry 7.6% of would-be base-stealers in 2007, I would look for many teams to run on them. Disabled List poster-boy Mark Prior supposedly has his eye on the fifth starter job, but he has been met with understandable skepticism.

Adrian Gonzalez is the Padres’ big power threat, but he needs to work on his plate discipline. He is slow as molasses but a very good defender at first base. Kevin Kouzmanoff had a very respectable rookie outing and will look to build on that. He destroys left handed pitching, but needs to work on his plate discipline. He also needs someone to teach him the fundamentals at the hot corner where he is a below average fielder with a strong, but erratic arm. Khalil Green is an above average shortstop with a strong bat, but he needs to work on… wait for it… his plate discipline! The Padres sport a lineup that goes to the plate to but bat on ball, they don’t see a ton of pitches and they don’t walk much. Headed into their fiftieth season, the franchise with the worst winning percentage of all time (for a team not from Tampa Bay) will continue their quest for that elusive first World Series championship. They will likely be in the mix until late in the season, but they’ll have to wait another year at least for that ring.

Padres Questions:

1. Will Kouzmanoff suffer from a sophomore slump? (How the hell should I know?)
2. Will Mark Prior start at least ten games? (Absolutely! Oh, you mean at the Major League level? No, probably not)
3. Will Maddux and Young have solid seasons behind Peavy? (Call it in the air…)
4. Will Trevor Hoffman choke at a key moment in the season? (Its what he does)
5. Will this be their year? (I could lie to you, but then that would be wrong, wouldn’t it?)
   
   
   

Colorado Rockies
2007 Finish: 90-73 2nd (WC), Lost to BOS in WS
David’s 2008 Prediction: 84-78 (-6) 4th

Josh’s Analysis:
Houston, Detroit… Colorado? The last two World Series runners-up didn’t even make the playoffs in defense of their pennant, will Colorado join them? Sadly for the mile-high faithful, it looks like they may. As I’ve already mentioned, the West is shaping up to be a truly competitive division, with four legitimate contenders for the top spot. Colorado had to win thirteen of fourteen games to finish out the regular season and get some help from Milwaukee just to force a one game playoff for the right to advance as a wild card. Colorado has a good young core of players, but as the saying goes, if you’re standing still, you’re moving backwards. The Rockies didn’t do anything significant by way of improving their team this winter and that’s going translate into problems this season.

Still, I wouldn’t be too shocked if the Rockies made a legitimate run at the West. They have some really good players and their mediocre ones look better because of the benefits of playing at Coors Field. Garrett Atkins and Troy Tulowitzki make up the best left side of the infield on both sides of the ball outside of New York and Detroit. Matt Holliday is a legitimate MVP contender every year and he gets a nice boost on the offensive side of things from playing where he does. Willy Taveras is bargain shopper’s Juan Pierre with one notable exception: he’s much better! Taveras is a speedster with very little pop in his bat, but he actually gets on base enough to make up for the lack of slugging. He also takes good routes to balls in center thus increasing his range. Lastly he has a strong, accurate arm which is crucial in Colorado’s cavernous center field. Ryan Spilborghs had a good showing in limited appearances and will likely platoon in right field with Brad Hawpe, giving the Rockies four true outfielders to work with.

Colorado has an above average pitching staff, led by Jeff Francis and power sinkerballer Aaron Cook. Ubaldo Jimenez had a respectable showing for a rookie and the Rockies are counting on him improving in his sophomore season. Manny Corpas was one of the best closers in the NL in the second half last year, and Brian Fuentes is a very good setup man. On paper, this team is just one or two pieces shy of being a legitimate power, and I would look for GM Dan O’Dowd to look to pick up another starter and maybe an upgrade at backstop at the deadline. Then again, they play the games because what’s on paper doesn’t usually translate into predictable results. Just ask the 2007 Rockies.

Rockies Questions:

1. Will Matt Holliday finally win that MVP? (He’s always in the running)
2. Will Tulowitzki have an impressive sophomore campaign? (All signs point to this kid being the real thing)
3. Will commentators continue to misunderstand what the humidor does and how it helps? (Sadly, yes)
4. Will the Rockies make the playoffs? (I’m not discounting the possibility, but they would need a perfect storm)
   
   
   

San Francisco Giants
2007 Finish: 71-91, 5th
David’s 2008 Prediction: 72-90 (+1) 5th

Josh’s Analysis:
I refuse to spend more than a paragraph discussing the Giants. Seems only fair, their front office refuses to field a competitive team. This is an organization whose one bright light in the last two decades was their 2002 run to game seven of the World Series. This is an organization that believes the best option for them at shortstop is forty year old Omar Vizquel with his career .621 OPS (who they re-signed this winter). This is an organization who gave Barry Zito a seven year one hundred twenty-six million dollar contract. Finally, this is an organization that rivals Baltimore in their complete and utter lack of hope for the future. They have an absolutely horrid farm system. They insist on signing and playing aging over-the-hill veterans (Vizquel, Durham, Winn) and slightly above average overpaid free agents (Aaron Rowand and Zito) instead of just admitting that they need to be rebuilding. They have two of the best young pitchers in the game and they spent the winter shopping one of them! They need to open up roster spots for youngsters, why spend that kind of money when they have no hope of competing? Finally, much like the O’s the only thing the Giants have going for them is a gorgeous stadium.

Giants Questions:
(Note: I’m doing something a little different for this one and actually asking questions someone should be asking the Giants organization)

1. Why commit sixty million dollars to a mediocre center fielder when you have no hope of competing in the next four years?
2. Are you telling me that there isn't a kid somewhere who would make twelve million less than Vizquel, be as useless at the plate and as efficient in the field?
3. If you are stupid enough to resign Vizquel because he is a fan-favorite, and you are stupid enough to overpay hacks, why not sign fan-favorite Bonds, controversy and all, to a one year deal and at least draw fans to the park?
4. Why the hell did you give Barry Zito a hundred twenty-six million dollars?
5. Why would you spend the winter trying to trade away one of two bright spots in your organization (Lincecum) for a handful of mediocre stopgaps that won’t improve your chance of competing in the short term?
6. Why do you hate your fans?
7. Do you kill puppies too?