NL East Preview

The long awaited NL East is finally here. I know you've all been waiting for this one (we have two loyal readers at the moment and they are both Mets fans), so here it is. At this point I don't need to bother pointing out to you how wrong David always is... and yet I just did, go figure. Without further ado, your NL East:

NL EAST

New York Mets
2007 Finish: 88-74, 2nd
David’s 2008 Prediction: 102-60 (+14) 1st

Josh’s Analysis:
To say that the end of the Mets’ 2007 campaign did not go quite as planned would be an understatement indeed. While columnists and pundits tend to throw around the words "historic collapse" without much regard for the facts, this was the largest division lead squandered with seventeen games to play in history. The Mets' fall from grace was agonizing to watch; I can't even imagine what it must have been like for a Mets fan. If Minaya had chosen to stand pat this winter, he still could have made an argument that the Mets were the best in the East. However, to truly move on from the 2007 debacle, he needed to do something big.

Well, we all know that the Mets did the biggest thing possible: they traded a handful of decent (and that’s being generous) prospects for the best pitcher in baseball. While the Red Sox and Yanks weren't particularly excited about giving up prospects in addition to an historic contract, Minaya knew that this was a pivotal moment for the organization. If Santana stays healthy, he should dominate the weaker league in one of the best pitcher's ballparks (and don't forget that he gets to face pitchers now instead of designated hitters!). The contract the Mets gave Santana is certainly a reflection of his ability to dominate the league; now it remains to be seen if he can deliver

Beyond the Mets’ new southpaw, the “other New York team” is quite formidable. The rest of their rotation looks solid, though unspectacular. If Pedro can return to even his 2005 form, the Mets will have arguably the best top two they have had in thirty years. Like most teams these days, their bullpen is a big question mark, but it could very well be above average if things go well. Jose Reyes had a terrible second half last year, but should remain the best shortstop in baseball if he can return to pre All-Star break form. Delgado had an off year in 2007, but could have a bounce back year if he can manage to stay healthy. Moises Alou is out till at least May and the Mets will miss his bat early on, but Endy Chavez (whose Game 7 catch in the 2006 NLCS buys him a free pass for life with the Flushing Faithful) will be there to fill in. Lastly, let’s not forget that David Wright was the true MVP of the 2007 season. As the Mets ship was sinking, Wright fought valiantly to keep it afloat. If he can reproduce last season’s effort in 2008, he'll finally have that MVP award adorning his mantle.

Here, have some chills, my treat:

Video: Endy Chavez's leaping catch

Mets Questions:

1. Will the Mets win the NL Pennant? (They are clearly the NL's best team heading into the season, but if 2007 taught us anything, it is that they play the games for a reason)
2. Will they win 100 games? (I don’t think they will, but they are the one team in the majors with a real shot at triple digits)
3. Will John Maine be the incredible pitcher that Mets fans seem to think he already is? (Nope, but he should be a perfectly acceptable number three man, which is exactly what the Mets need him to be)
4. Will Pedro find a way to be effective? (The best pitcher in baseball history doesn’t need his old stuff to get you out)
5. Will Santana be clearing space in his trophy case for his third Cy Young? (If he stays healthy it is hard to think of who would be a better choice)
   
   
   

Philadephia Phillies
2007 Finish: 89-73, 1st, Lost to COL in NLDS
David’s 2008 Prediction: 85-77 (-4) 3rd

Josh’s Analysis:
When Jimmy Rollins announced to the world during spring training last year that the Phillies were “the team to beat” in the NL East, the general consensus was “get me a pipe of whatever he’s been smoking”. But as we all know, the deus ex machina reared its ugly head in September, ignoring what we know to be true about Hubris and allowing the heavily favored Mets to blow a seven game lead with seventeen to play. Ignoring for the moment that as a New Yorker I will generally root for the Mets, and there is certainly no love lost between myself and any team calling Philadelphia home, I was downright livid that Jimmy Rollins’ absurd and cocky prediction came to pass. While Rollins may be a superb shortstop and a very good offensive threat, his OBP is too low to convince me he is an elite player; he simply doesn’t walk. Last season’s MVP award (twist the knife, why don’t you?) was only conferred because the Mets’ epic collapse prejudiced the voters against David Wright (who hit .352 during September and was the sole Met who didn’t look like he was suddenly playing for the Bad News Bears).

The Phillies are unquestionably the best offensive team in the National League. They boast the last two NL MVP’s as well as the man who would have been last year’s MVP had he stayed healthy (Utley). Chase Utley is without a doubt the best second baseman in the majors, and the Phillies big three should send most pitchers crying home to mommy. That said however, Ryan Howard is not quite the Adonis people think he is. He broke Adam Dunn’s inauspicious record for strikeouts in a season with 199 last year, and he did it in only 144 games! He would lose a race to first base with a paraplegic, he is a fielder of Ortiz-like proportions and he is either hitting a home run or flying out. Still, he walks a ton and has impressive power so I think the Philies will take the good with the bad.

Pat Gillick had a nice little off-season for himself, giving up rather little for closer Brad Lidge and effectively swapping Aaron Rowand for Geoff Jenkins through free agency. The Phillies of 2007 were built on power hitting and passable pitching. Cole Hamels and Brett Myers are a fine one-two punch at the top, but the rest of their rotation is a complete mess and not to be trusted. Here’s a nickel’s worth of free advice for all pitchers: If your rookie year coincides with the last time the Mets won the World Series, it might be time to consider retirement! Yes, I’m talking to you Jamie Moyer!

Phillies Questions:

1. Will Brad Lidge finally overcome being manhandled by Pujols in the 2005 NLCS and become and elite closer again? (He’s had two full years of therapy, might be time to move on)
2. Will Chase Utley be the third straight Philly to win the NL MVP? (He finishes in the top three or your money back)
3. Will Jimmy Rollins say something stupid to the press? (Some people make the seemingly daunting task of predicting the future quite simple indeed)
4. Will Ryan Howard top 200 strikeouts this season? (Look on the bright side, at least he’s not hitting into double plays)
5. Will Jamie Moyer’s fastball ever cross home plate? (Might be time to start calling it something else)

Atlanta Braves
2007 Finish: 84-78, 3rd
David’s 2008 Prediction: 88-74 (+4) 2nd

Josh’s Analysis:
The 2007 Braves are a classic example of a “worst of both worlds” team (See my Toronto Blue Jays preview for definition). They were just good enough to finish a handful of games above .500, but not good enough to really threaten the Mets or Phillies. I am predicting more of the same for 2008. The Braves are an interesting case study; half of their roster is locked in and solid, and the other half is a complete mess. They could have the best three man rotation in the National League (Smoltz, Hudson and Glavine), but they have five guys competing for the final two spots. One of the men looking for a roster spot is none other than Mike Hampton; yes, he is still alive. The thirty-five year old hurler who is apparently made of fiberglass looks to pitch for the first time since mid-2005. Nobody is particularly enthusiastic about his ability to perform, but at the very least he can provide a legitimate power threat off the bench for the tomahawkers. Many scouts think that Rafael Soriano will be a reasonable closer, but if he isn’t, the Braves will be in trouble.

Having Mark Texeira’s loaner bat in the lineup for a full season will be a plus, but I still think the trade was a mistake. The Braves gave up some good prospects to get Texeira for a season and a half with little chance of resigning him when his contract is up this winter (he’s a Boras client and the Braves have a very strict table of what they are willing to spend on players). He simply didn’t make the team good enough to legitimately challenge the Phillies or Mets for a playoff spot. With a little improvement Jeff Francoeur might just be about average for a corner outfielder. Backstop Brian McCann had a disappointing showing last season after a stellar performance in his rookie campaign. The Braves are counting on it being a sophomore slump and nothing more. Replacing Andruw Jones and his .220 batting average in center field this season will be Mark Kotsay… the one center fielder in the majors who fared worse (.214 in 56 games), well done. Overall, three future first ballot hall-of-famers won’t be enough to get this mix of young talent and past-their-prime veterans into October. Maybe next year Atlanta.

Braves Questions:

1. Will Smoltz get his 3000th strikeout before May 1st? (I think 25 K’s in his first four starts is a pretty safe bet)
2. Will McCann leave his sophomore slump behind him? (The Braves sure hope so)
3. Will Glavine be good for 200 innings? (As long as Bobby Cox doesn’t bench him for sucking, he should get there)
4. Will Hudson continue to perform as well as he did in 2007, or will we see a repeat of 2006? (Trying to predict a pitcher’s performance here so lets be scientific about this: Heads: He’s good, Tails: He sucks)
5. Will Mike Hampton hold on to a starting job all season? (Vote No on proposition Hampton)
6. Is anyone else noticing that most of the Braves’ questions pertain to pitching? (And what does that tell you?)

Washington Nationals
2007 Finish: 73-89, 4th
David’s 2008 Prediction: 70-86 (-3) 4th

Josh’s Analysis:
The Minnesota Twins responded to the 2002 contraction discussions by making it to the ALCS, the Nationals (formerly the Expos) have done pretty much the opposite. The Nationals are one of only four franchises to have never won a pennant (even as the Expos). I’d like to say that things will be changing for them in the foreseeable future but alas, it looks like it will be more of the same for quite some time. Not a single one of their starting pitcher’s (and they have seven listed) has a winning record for his career, and only Tim Redding has more than two years of experience. The only truly solid part of their pitching staff is closer Chad Cordero.

On the offensive side of things there are a handful of good players sprinkled in with the mediocrity that is the rest of the team. Ryan Zimmerman is an above average hitter at the hot corner, but his numbers have been in a steady nose dive since his much ballyhooed debut as a September call-up in 2005. Just about every player on this team strikes out far too much. From Dmitri Young to Wily Mo Pena (who turned striking out into an art form) this team has absolutely no plate discipline. Lastings Milledge (one time pearl of the Mets’ farm system who has since fallen from grace) and Elijah Dukes (one time pearl of the Rays’ farm system who has since fallen from grace) join catcher Paul LoDuca as the Nat’s big off-season acquisitions. But it is doubtful that these minor changes will amount to much in terms of team wins. From top to bottom this team has no chance of competing in the NL East and will continue to be irrelevant until Jim Bowden completely cleans house (at the very least, please stop signing guys like Dmitri Young and Ronnie Belliard!).

Nationals Questions:

1. Will the Nats be last in the league in runs scored again? (I see no reason to believe otherwise)
2. Will any of their pitchers win fifteen games? (I wouldn’t put money on it)
3. Will Ryan Zimmerman finally become the premier player everyone seems to think he will be? (Its starting to look more and more like 2005 was the fluke and not the other way around, but maybe leaving the confines of hitter-hell RFK will help)
4. Will the Nats at least end up with good draft position? (Ah, the one upside to sucking so consistently)

Florida Marlins
2007 Finish: 71-91, 5th
David’s 2008 Prediction: 65-97 (-6) 5th

Josh’s Analysis:
The old adage goes: hitting wins pennants, pitching wins championships. Turns out you need some pitching en route to a pennant as well. Don’t believe me? Ask the Marlins. Like the Nationals, the woeful Marlins’ pitching staff is in shambles. Not one of their six potential starters has a career ERA under 4.80. The Marlins gave up more runs in 2007 than every single team except the Devil Rays. So what was the Marlins’ solution to this dilemma? Trade away the one pitcher they had who had ever shown a glimmer of excellence. Clearly Dontrelle Willis needed to go. After his phenomenal 2005 campaign (22-10, 2.63, 170), his numbers have been in a tailspin the past two seasons. Of course Florida also traded away their one marquee player in Miguel Cabrera. There isn’t a lot to be excited about when it comes to the Marlins. Hanley Ramirez may be the only All-Star on the team. You know what? My mother always told me that if I have nothing nice to say, I shouldn’t say anything at all. And I just can’t come up with a single good thing about the Marlins right now.

Marlins’ Questions:

1. Will the Marlins suck this season? (Yes)
2. Will the Marlins give up over 900 runs? (A real possibility, how sad is that?)
3. Should I bother coming up with any more questions? (Does anyone really care about the Marlins?)