AL West Preview

Ah, the powerhouse AL West, the four-teamed division so significant that it has produced exactly one pennant winner since the restructuring of the divisions in 1995. Since you are all on the edge of your seat waiting for the analysis, I'll let you get right to it. Just a reminder David=wrong, Josh=right. Enjoy:

AL WEST

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, California, USA, Earth, Sol, Milky Way, Virgo Supercluster...
2007 Finish: 94-68, 1st, Lost to BOS in ALDS
David’s 2008 Prediction: 95-67 (+1) 1st

Josh’s Analysis:
The Angels seem to be the class of the AL West. With the A's “rebuilding” and the Rangers just generally sucking, only Seattle is capable putting pressure on the Angels. Still, it seems unlikely that that pressure will amount to much as October rolls around. The Angels of 2007 were successful due to good starting pitching, a solid bullpen, and an average offense. Expect more of the same in 2008.

The Angels big off-season move was the signing of centerfielder Torii Hunter (formerly of the Minnesota Twins of Minneapolis AND St. Paul). As I mentioned in my Twins preview, giving Hunter ninety million dollars over five years was clinically INSANE. Hunter's reputation for putting up impressive offensive numbers and stellar defense were clearly why he was given such a… shall we say generous deal? But reasonable empirical studies show that both reputations are undeserved. Hunter's power is made essentially irrelevant by his low OBP, and his defense is slightly above average at best. While Peter Gammons seems to think that Hunter is the best human being since Mother Teresa, there is no evidence that a sunny disposition leads to more team wins (except in the case of Patron Saint of New York, Derek Jeter).

My Hunter rant aside, the Angels only real worry is injuries. Escobar, a borderline Cy Young candidate, has already had some early problems. Vlad the Impaler is always gimpy to some degree, and his style of all-out play certainly lends itself to injuries. Their rotation did perform above expectations last year, and relying on pitching consistency is a little like relying on the weatherman to be accurate. This is likely K-Rod’s last season with the Angels and he is not a happy camper after his arbitration letdown. But that may just mean he has something to prove. The 2002 Angels (they of Anaheim, but not Los Angeles) proved that all you need to do is make the playoffs and then get hot. I’m punching the Angels’ October ticket now, whether they get hot or not, is up to them.

Angels Questions:

1. Will Howie Kendrick finally make the leap to stardom? (I think his stock is a sound investment)
2. Will Vlad manage to stay healthy and productive? (The Angels should definitely use Hunter to get Vlad to DH most of the time, it would help)
3. Will the Angels pitching have a solid follow up year? (Sure, why not?)
4. Will the Angels manage to accomplish being both from Los Angeles and from Anaheim? ("Only God should be all places at once." The gospel according to Samuel L. Jackson)
5. Will I ever stop making jokes about the naming thing? (No, Sir!)

Seattle Mariners
2007 Finish: 88-74, 2nd
David’s 2008 Prediction: 89-75 (+1) 2nd

Josh’s Analysis:
The 2007 Seattle Mariners were a bit of a smoke and mirrors act. They finished six games out of a playoff spot at a very respectable 88-74 and they were in the hunt until late September. However, a closer look at their numbers will reveal that the M’s gave up nineteen more runs then they scored. According to the widely accepted formula that turns run differential into an expected win-loss record, Seattle should have finished with nine fewer wins than they did… or four games under .500. In laymen’s terms, this means that the M’s were luckier than they should have been. I’ll keep saying it: luck is not a repeatable skill.

Seattle did not choose to stand pat this winter, vigorously pursuing Erik Bedard from Baltimore. The M’s gave up a lot to get Bedard, including highly rated prospect Adam Jones. Bavasi likely could have negotiated a better deal for himself considering that Baltimore was committed to moving Bedard and Seattle was seemingly the only serious bidder. Nonetheless, Bedard is definitely a good fit for Seattle and should do quite nicely in the confines of Safeco Field. Maybe this will be the year he finally hits 200 innings. Ichiro might be overrated due to his high batting average, but his value as a center fielder is off the charts.

Adrian Beltre, who set the bar for overachieving in a contract year (He hit 48 HRs and slugged nearly two hundred points above his career average!) is finally starting to make the contract he conned Seattle into giving him look somewhat reasonable when you take his defense into account. Besides, when you put him on the same team as Richie Sexson (.205/.295/.399 100K’s, 51BB’s in 2007… no, those aren’t typos) Beltre suddenly looks like the second coming of Babe Ruth. ESPN reported false rumors that Sexson was claimed off of waivers last year by Detroit before Seattle pulled him back. I assure you that if Detroit had claimed Sexson off waivers, he would have been a Tiger as soon as Bavasi could physically have bought him a plane ticket. But look at the bright side: considering the numbers Sexson put up last season, even a below average showing in 2008 should make him a shoe-in for Comeback Player of the Year. Overall, the acquisition of Bedard, combined with the fact that Texas and Oakland should be pretty pathetic this season, means that Seattle will finish about where they did last season: second in the West and home by October third.

Mariners Questions:

1. Can Seattle make a legitimate run at the playoffs? (Sure, but it would probably involve a team-wide case of avian flu for the Angels)
2. Will Bedard become the ace people seem to think he is? (Well, the Seattle faithful have already penciled him in for 240 innings, so… probably not)
3. Will King Felix finally be crowned with a Cy Young? (He already has the best stuff in baseball, with Santana is in the NL, this might be his year)
4. Who will show up this season, Richie Sexson, or Richie Sexson’s rotting corpse? (It is not possible to perform worse than he did in 2007. I’m predicting some improvement… I know what you’re asking yourself: When will he stop with these insane predictions?!)
5. Will J.J. Putz continue to have the best name in baseball? (I don’t know of any prospects named Quincy Loquacious Douchebag, though my MVP Baseball 2005 once generated a player named Dick Smallenberg… seriously)

Oakland Athletics
2007 Finish: 76-86, 3rd
David’s 2008 Prediction: 68-94 (-8) 4th

Josh’s Analysis:
Despite what you may have read in Moneyball, Billy Beane and the Oakland A’s have not done a good job of drafting in the last half decade or so. After catching lightning in a bottle more times than you might expect in the nineties, (Giambi, Tejada, Zito, Mulder, Hudson) Beane has essentially crapped out in recent drafts, the law of large numbers coming back to bite him in the ass I suppose. The inevitable result of poor drafting is a bankrupted farm system, which means that when starters get injured (as professional athletes are wont to do) there is no one of major league caliber to replace them. With no reasonable shot at making a run at October this season, Beane did the smart thing and opted for a legitimate rebuilding job. Having wisely let Giambi and Tejada seek greener pastures already this decade, Beane decided to commit to Eric Chavez as the face of the franchise. Boy was that a mistake. Chavez’ numbers have been in a steady decline over the last six years in nearly every measurable category.

Dan Haren was incredibly lucky last year, with a large percentage of balls put into play against him being caught. By now you should be able to say it with me: luck is not a repeatable skill! Beane capitalized on Haren’s lucky season by trading him when his stock was highest. One could argue he waited a little too long to trade Swisher, but the A’s got a nice mix of prospects back for the pair. All that’s left is for Beane to trade Blanton, Street and the Oakland Coliseum to finish the job. Rich Harden may never stay healthy enough to become the pitcher that everyone thinks he will be, but with the dawn of each season comes new hope, so A’s fans, keep your fingers crossed. Jack Cust was often billed as a natural DH when he was coming up with the Rockies in 2002. Congratulations Jack, you’ve achieved your destiny. By and large, the A’s are a bit tricky to predict. They were very unlucky last season, with injuries decimating their roster early on. The A’s should be healthier this season and their young players are a year older; they may just be good enough to outperform the Rangers.

Athletics Questions:

1. Will Bobby Crosby finally win that MVP that Gammons predicted two years ago? (When Gammons is in a coma one day, I will still be making fun of him for that one)
2. Will the A’s finish their fire sale and trade Blanton and Street? (We’re talking about one of the few rational GM’s in baseball, so yes)
3. Should we bet on Rich Harden’s health? (The same way that guy at 7-11 is betting on scratch-offs)
4. Will Eric Chavez have a bounce back year? (In the interest of protecting the environment, this question has been recycled from 2007… and 2006, 2005, 2004…)
5. Will the A’s be competitive again by 2010? (In Beane we trust…)
6. Will Billy Beane, author extraordinaire, finally get fair credit for writing Moneyball from baseball scouts? (Hey, Joe Morgan… HE DIDN’T WRITE THE DAMN BOOK!)

Texas Rangers
2007 Finish: 75-87, 4th
David’s 2008 Prediction: 74-88 (-1) 3rd

Josh’s Analysis:
One might think it odd that on the night the Red Sox clinched the World Series in Colorado, the owner of a last place team was popping proverbial champagne corks 888 miles away. But that was exactly what Tom Hicks, owner of the downtrodden Texas Rangers, was probably doing on the evening of October 29th last year. A-Rod’s decision to opt out of the final three years of his contract saved the Rangers – who had agreed to pick up roughly $7 million a season as part of his trade to the Yankees – a fortune. Still, when you’re a last place team and your only significant off-season acquisition is $21.3 million dollars in cash, it is hard to predict good things.

The 2007 Rangers were horrid; I don’t even know where to begin. Their “ace” went 10-14 with a 5.16 ERA, and they are counting on Vincente Padilla, a pitcher with a career ERA over four, to have a “bounce-back” year. They don’t even have a pitcher assigned to close going into the season. They were smart to trade Texeira to the braves at the deadline, but they made a mistake by resigning Michael Young. Young, a fan favorite, is a natural second baseman playing shortstop (and believe me, it shows) whose offensive numbers are inflated by virtue of playing in one of the best hitter’s parks in the majors.

One upside to the fact that Texas has yet to finish better than third this decade is that they have an excellent farm system (which isn’t true of all lousy organizations). Backstop Jarrod Saltamacchia is expected to take the starting job from Gerald Laird (much to the chagrin of baseball announcers everywhere, I'm sure). But if he doesn’t perform up to expectations quickly, he may have to step aside for Taylor Teagarden, a highly rated prospect who hails from the Lonestar State. Contrary to what their state motto might say, this is definitely the year to mess with Texas.

Rangers Questions:

1. Does anyone care enough about the Rangers to still be reading this? (Doubtful)
2. Yea, I gotta be honest, I’ve got nothing... Stay tuned for the NL East over the weekend.