Chicago Cubs
2007 Finish: 85-77, 1st, Lost to ARI in NLDS
David’s 2008 Prediction: 88-74 (+3) 2nd
Josh’s Analysis:
Good things happen to those who finally realize that you can’t build a team around two pitchers who spend so much time on the disabled list that they get their mail there. The Cubs gave up on Kerry Wood and Mark Prior and started spending money and (excuse the pun) it paid off. Between Soriano, Ramirez, Lilly, Marquis, Zambrano and now Fukudome, the Cubbies have committed nearly four hundred million dollars over the last two seasons. Amazingly, the Cubs’ pitching staff was one of the best in the league. They led baseball with 1,211 strikeouts and were second in the NL with a 4.04 ERA. When ace Carlos Zambrano isn’t mixing it up with his catcher in the dugout he is one of the best in the business. Despite his history of injury, Ted Lilly was a legitimate number two guy last season. Hill and Marquis will be joined by former closer Ryan Dempster to fill out the Cubs rotation. Chicago enters the season with no one assigned to the closer role, but Bob Howry, Carlos Marmol and none other than Kerry Wood will compete for the job. Wood is considered to be the frontrunner for the position (of course, as I write this, the Cubs announced the Wood has back spasms and is day to day, shocking... nobody).
Japanese sensation Kosuke Fukudome brings his bat and speed to right field for the Cubs. Fukudome is coming off shoulder surgery in August and I’m always wary of Japanese imports. Soriano got off to a slow start last year, but by season’s end he was showing the nation why the Cubs gave him all those bags of cash. He broke his middle finger during spring training, and one wonders what he was using it for at the time, but he should be fine in time for opening day. Derek Lee and Aramis Ramirez join Soriano in anchoring a slightly above average lineup. Fiery Lou Piniella will enter his second season as Cubs manager with two goals: winning consecutive division titles for the first time in club history, and ending the Cubs’ century-long pursuit of that elusive world championship.
Cubs Questions:
- Will Kerry Wood… you know what; you’ve heard all the Wood questions and the answers never change. (In other words… NO!)
- Will the Cubs’ rotation continue to be among the best in the league? (Should be, but as I’ve said before… predicting pitching success is a crapshoot)
- Will Fukudome’s performance justify the contract he was given? (Who knows, but I think getting to hear announcers try to pronounce his name for four years makes him worth the money)
- How many times will Sweet Lou be ejected in 2008? (The over/under is 6 and I’m taking the over)
- Will the Cubs finally win the World Series? (Outlook not so good)
- … How about the pennant? (Don’t count on it)
Milwaukee Brewers
2007 Finish: 83-79, 2nd
David’s 2008 Prediction: 90-72 (+7) 1st
Josh’s Analysis:
Just because the end of the Brewers’ season didn’t match the scale of the Mets’ September collapse, doesn’t mean it wasn’t disappointing. The Brewers were set to claim their first playoff appearance in a quarter century before the bottom fell out. The Brew-Crew were tied with the Cubbies for first place with a mere ten games to play, but manager Ned Yost came unwound, getting ejected in consecutive games down the stretch as Milwaukee split their last ten games and finished two games back in baseball’s weakest division. Still, there was plenty of good in the Brewers’ 2007 campaign. Ryan Braun was the NL Rookie of the Year despite not being called up till the last week of May, and it was a no-brainer. He broke Mark McGwire’s twenty year old record for slugging percentage by a rookie with an astounding .634. His plate discipline needs work; he doesn’t walk and he strikes out a lot. He’s a below average defender at the hot corner and the Brewers would be better served by moving him to a corner outfield spot. Still, Braun is a mammoth threat at the plate and he has some of the best protection in baseball in Prince Fielder. Speaking of Prince Fielder, his fifty home run showing in his sophomore season had him coming in third in the NL MVP voting. So the Brewers rewarded their elite first baseman with a whopping 255,000 dollar raise, and Prince let the world know how unhappy he was about that.
Looking forward to 2008, Brewers fans have a lot to be excited about. Ace Ben Sheets, who was injured for a large portion of 2007, is expected to be at full strength and anchor an above average rotation that features young upstart Yovani Gallardo. Gallardo filled in nicely for Sheets when he went down and should be a very good number two man. Milwaukee lost both their closer (Francisco Cordero) and premiere setup man (Scott Linebrink) to free agency. GM Doug Melvin responded by picking up Eric Gagne (he of the absolutely horrid showing in Boston last year) and David Riske. Perhaps Gagne’s return to the National League will help him recover some of his prior magic, but I wouldn’t count on it. Other free agent acquisitions include center fielder Mike Cameron (who will have to miss the first 25 games of the season due to suspension) and backstop Jason Kendall. Kendall is a below average hitter and defender (he only threw out 15% of would-be base stealers in 2007) but he has a leadership quality that Melvin hopes will help to guide along their young staff.
Brewers Questions:
- Will Ben Sheets finally get back to two hundred innings? (Yet another question recycled from 2007, 2006 and 2005)
- Will Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder continue to obliterate opposing pitching? (Their stocks should both be sound investments for many years)
- Will Gagne have a bounce back year? (Hell, if he keeps his ERA under five he should be a lock for comeback player of the year)
- Will the Brewers return to the postseason for the first time since 1982? (They’ve got a great shot, but I still say the Cubs are the favorites in the Central)
Cincinnati Reds
2007 Finish: 72-90, 5th
David’s 2008 Prediction: 75-87 (+3) 3rd
Josh’s Analysis:
The Cincinnati Reds had been the quintessential example of false hope for most of the decade. They would storm out of the gate and fool people into thinking they were a true contender for a few months before completely tanking in the second half. In 2007 the Reds abandoned the false hope campaign, opting instead for a first half tanking that resulted in the mid-season firing of manager Jerry Narron. Owner Bob Castellini decided to show fans his dedication to winning now by hiring Dusty Baker as the new manager over the winter. Dusty Baker's last managerial stint (with the Cubs in 2006) ended with his very public firing after finishing dead last in the six-team division. But he claims he is reinvigorated after a year in the booth. There isn’t much about the Reds that makes you confident that they can be truly significant in 2008. While Baker may indeed be an improvement over Narron and his interim replacement (Pete Mackanin), he won’t be enough to push the Reds into serious contention.
Still, there are a handful of bright spots for a team that last played significant October ball when they won it all in 1990. Despite anchoring staff that sported the National League’s worst ERA in 2007 (4.94), Aaron Harang showed he has legitimate ace potential. Harang has pitched back to back seasons with at least 230 innings pitched, 215 strikeouts, fewer than 60 walks allowed and sub-4.00 ERA. He is a workhorse on an otherwise lousy staff. After a resurgent 2006 that had Red Sox fans crying in their chowdah, Bronson Arroyo returned to his former self in 2007, showing significant regression in every measurable category. Still, many Cincinnati faithful (and I’m assured that there are still a handful of them) point to his poor run support last season in explaining away his dismal win/loss record (9-15), and I say whatever helps them sleep at night. Picking up free agent Francisco Cordero should help solidify their bullpen.
On the offensive side of the ball, the Reds are a mess. The crown jewel of the organization is left fielder Adam Dunn. Four straight years of at least forty homeruns is certainly nothing to sneeze at, but neither is averaging 182 strikeouts a season. Dunn is the ultimate prototype for the "3 true outcome" player: no need to get those silly fielders involved in most of his at bats. His defense is also lousy and getting worse. I would imagine Dunn will be looking for a DH job in the American League when he becomes a free agent this winter. Thirty-eight year old Ken Griffey Jr. had a nice enough 2007, playing 144 games and reaching 500 at-bats for the first time since his inaugural season in Cincinnati in 2000. Still, counting on Griffey at this point in his career would be a lot like counting on a roulette wheel. Despite what Castellini and GM Wayne Krivsky would have you believe, this is not going to be the year that the Reds return to the postseason.
Reds Questions:
- Will Adam Dunn lead the league in strikeouts? (Not a forgone conclusion with Ryan Howard in the equation)
- Will Harang reach 200 innings for a fourth straight year? (As long as he stays healthy, this one should be a cinch)
- Will Scott Hatteberg build on his impressive 2007 and hit .300 again? (He’s shown improvement two years running and was on pace for a career year in AVG, OBP and SLG but at age 38, it might be too late for him)
- Will Brandon Phillips have another 30/30 season? (He barely got there in his second full season with Cincy so I’m going with no)
- Will Griffey get to 600 homeruns? (Hmmm… he needs seven more… he’d have to stay healthy for about two weeks… this is a tough one, but I’ll go with yes)
- Will the Reds regret keeping future star Jay Bruce and the up and coming Joey Votto in the minors in order to play retreads? (If they miss the playoffs by a couple games, this will go down as a monumentally brainless, yet predictable, choice)
- Will the Reds make the playoffs? (No, but watch out for them in the future)
Houston Astros
2007 Finish: 73-89, 4th
David’s 2008 Prediction: 71-91 (-2) 4th
Josh’s Analysis:
As I argue in my Baltimore preview, a team is either trying to win a championship, is rebuilding, or is just plain robbing their fans. Welcome to Houston, prepare to be robbed. It is always difficult to admit that merely two years removed from a pennant-winning season, you are in full-scale rebuilding mode, but that is where Houston needs to be right now. They simply do not have enough pieces to compete this season, and they have plenty of chips to trade in a full-blown rebuilding effort. Firing both the GM (Tim Purpura) and manager (Phil Garner) is a step in the right direction; now its time to fully commit to rebuilding.
The Astros have seen two of their “Killer Bee’s” retire in the last two seasons, leaving first baseman Lance Berkman and ace Roy Oswalt as the key holdovers from their 2005 run. Berkman had a perfectly acceptable 2007, but he set new career lows in AVG, OBP and SLG. It is certainly possible that this was just an off season, but the ‘stros would be wise to move him ASAP before there is a chance for the thirty-two year old to prove that he has begun to decline for good and his value crashes. Undisputed ace Roy Oswalt would command a king’s ransom on the trade market, but his complete no-trade clause complicates matters for the organization. The rest of Houston’s rotation is a complete mess. Brandon Backe showed glimmers of excellence in September after returning from Tommy John surgery and it remains to be seen if he can sustain that over a full season. Wandy Rodriguez and Woody Williams were both abysmal and I predict more of the same in 2008. The acquisition of last year’s surprise phenom closer Jose Valverde is expected to shore up a bullpen that has been lacking since Brad Lidge’s psyche was essentially murdered by Albert Pujols in 2005. A quick look at Valverde’s career seems to indicate that the soon-to-be-twenty-nine-year-old only performs well in odd numbered years (sub-2.70 ERA in 03, 05 and 07… greater than 4.20 ERA in 04 and 06). For Houston’s sake, lets hope that is just a coincidence.
Looking forward to the 2008 campaign, I see very little to be excited about. Miguel Tejada is an upgrade of epic proportions at short over the laughable Adam Everett. Tejada had a pretty lousy year by his own standards in 2007 and I would look for him to return to form in 2008. Unfortunately for Houston, Tejada is famously intolerant of teams that are not immediate contenders and by the time Houston is significant again, Tejada will be past his prime. He is already a below average fielder and Houston may be better off moving him to the hot corner. Carlos Lee did a nice job of justifying the contract he was given following the 2006 season (you know, kinda), and I see no reason to think that will change. When the trade deadline rolls around and the Astros are already out of contention, I would look for new GM Ed Wade to make some moves toward some serious rebuilding (ah, but will I find it?).
Astros Questions:
- Will Roy Oswalt finally win that Cy Young? (Unlikely, with Santana in the NL now and the lack of run support making it difficult to accumulate “shiny” numbers such as Wins for the moronic voters to get excited about, it doesn’t look good)
- Will Carlos Lee put up another 30/100? (Vote yes on proposition Lee)
- Will the Astros’ best prospect, Hunter Pence, suffer from a sophomore slump? (That would be unfortunate, he was one of the best rookies in baseball in 2007 finishing third in RoY voting)
- Will Ed Wade opt for a full-scale rebuilding effort? (Here’s hoping, but not expecting)
- Will Tejada spark some sort of controversy? (As certain as death and taxes)
St. Louis Cardinals
2007 Finish: 78-84, 3rd
David’s 2008 Prediction: 70-92 (-8) 5th
Josh’s Analysis:
The 2007 Cardinals essentially defined bad luck. Their ace and perpetual Cy Young contender Chris Carpenter went down after one start and had season ending Tommy John surgery. Mark Mulder was limited to three starts and had season ending rotator cuff surgery. Yadier Molina had season ending knee surgery in September. Second baseman Adam Kennedy had season ending knee surgery in August. Center fielder Jim Edmonds was limited to only 117 games due to various injuries. Carpenter is expected to be back shortly after the All-Star break, Mulder should return to the rotation in mid-April, Molina is slated to be the opening day catcher, and Edmonds was traded away. Still, there is no telling how effective any of them will be following their surgeries. If Carpenter and Mulder can regain their previous form, the Cardinals will have a surprisingly passable rotation. Adam Wainwright did a great job of filling in for Carpenter last season in his first season as a starter. Brandon Looper, on the other hand, was at best a below average pitcher in his transition from the bullpen to the rotation. Matt Clement is expected to vie for a spot in the rotation after missing all of 2007 recovering from his shoulder surgery. In the bullpen there is no reason to believe that Jason Isringhausen won’t continue to be one of the best (ok, most servicable) closers in the game.
Discussion of the Cards’ offense begins and ends with Albert Pujols. What is there to say about Prince Albert that has not already been said? He opened his career with seven straight seasons of 30/100. He has incredible plate discipline; he doesn’t strike out and he walks plenty. Unlike most slugging first basemen, his defense is a real plus for the team. He is one of the best all around players in the game. After Pujols, the pickings are pretty slim in St. Louis. Rick Ankiel was the feel-good story of 2007 after he washed out as a pitcher and reinvented himself as an outfielder, but the shine of that story is likely to be gone in 2008. If he can produce the way he did in 2007 for a full season, he may just be a serviceable position player. But look for highly rated prospect Brian Barton to take over center if Ankiel doesn’t meet expectations early on. If everything falls into place for the Cards they could hang around until late August, but I wouldn’t count on them being a factor beyond that.
Cardinals Questions:
- Will Chris Carpenter return to form when he rejoins the team? (Pitchers returning from Tommy John surgery are always unpredictable, but he should be good to go)
- Will Albert Pujols post his eighth straight 30/100 season? (YES!)
- Will Rick Ankiel put up 30 homeruns? (NO!)
- Will Adam Kennedy crack .220 this season? (All indications seem to point to 2007 just being a fluke, he should return to full mediocre form in 2008)
- Will LaRussa be fired this year? (Seems like a distinct possibility, recently fired GM Jocketty was his biggest supporter within the organization)
Pittsburgh Pirates
2007 Finish: 68-94, 6th
David’s 2008 Prediction: 66-96 (-2) 6th
Josh’s Analysis:
Good news for Pittsburgh fans! The Pirates are ideally poised to tie a major league record that has stood for sixty years! With one more losing season, the Pirates will match the mark for most consecutive losing seasons (Phillies: 16, 1933-1948). What’s that you say? That isn’t actually good news? Well you try finding something to be excited about in the Pirates organization! Not as easy as it sounds, is it?
I’m going to keep this preview short and sweet. The Pirates stink. Period. They do not have enough on-field talent to be competitive and no number of cosmetic alterations to the front office or coaching staff will change that fact. The Pirates are a bit of an enigma in that one would think that fifteen straight losing seasons would produce the best farm system in baseball. But that isn’t the case, the Pirates are known for trading away highly rated prospects for short-term stopgaps that do nothing to improve their chances of competing in the long or short term.
Jason Bay had his worst season yet in 2007, hitting career lows in every statistical category. Most scouts anticipate a return to form in 2008. Xavier Nady was a pleasant surprise in his first full season with Pittsburgh and it remains to be seen if he can stay consistent over time. Freddy Sanchez is likely the best all around player on the team, so look for him to be traded soon. Closer Matt Capps and “ace” Tom Gorzelanny both showed incredible promise last season. Starter Ian Snell looked like a legitimate number two man. Still, the Pirates stink. And there is no foreseeable hope in the next few seasons for them either. Poor Pirates fans.
Pirates Questions:
- Will the Pirates tie the record for most consecutive losing seasons? (I’ll do you one better, I am guaranteeing that they not only tie the record, but surpass it in 2009)
- Will anything good happen for the Pirates this season? (High draft position…)
- Will neophyte manager John Russell be fired before season’s end? (6:5 against)
- When can Pirates fans expect their team to contend again? (Its best not to focus on arbitrary things like “dates”, lets just say they should settle in for the long haul)
No comments:
Post a Comment