Wednesday, March 26, 2008

Interview: Davin Anderson


Davin Anderson is not really a household name unless you happen to be an avid poker fan. So for those of you who don't know I'll clue you in. Davin finished 25th out of a field of 2,576 in the 2004 World Series of Poker Main Event. It was the year Greg Raymer took home poker's most coveted prize, but for six days, it looked as though the poker gods had a different horse in mind. Two bad beats on the penultimate day doomed Davin's run to the final table. His voice can still be heard on the intro to ESPN's World Series of Poker broadcasts declaring triumphantly "this is the greatest sport in the world!" At thirty-eight years old, Davin has won well over a million dollars playing high stakes poker and just about anything else one can gamble on. If you have $250 per session to spare you can hire him as a poker coach. Or you can just visit Poker Room Radio and check out his articles on poker, you'll find them under kamikazekorean.

The Official Scorers: Davin, we just want to start out by thanking you for your time. How old were you when you started playing poker?
Davin Anderson: I started playing poker with the older kids in my neighborhood when I was eight. We started with penny poker, but that quickly grew to nickels, dimes, and then quarters. The most popular game was called Acey-Deucey which is a form of a casino game called Red Dog. A simple game in which two cards are turned face up, and the player can bet up to the size of the pot that the third card’s value will be between the first two.
When we started to ante $1, the pots could become large quickly. I believe I was the first kid to figure out that if you kept track of the cards in the deck, eventually you would be able to predict accurately the remaining cards. I became the richest kid in the neighborhood when I won a $2800 pot (mostly IOU’s). After I tried cash in the several IOU’s from the parents in the neighborhood, the kids weekly poker game was over.
All my life I have been passionate about games and learning the best strategies to win. At the age of 12, I couldn’t find an adult that could beat me in chess. During my first two years in college, I made a nice consistent income playing Rummy, Ping-Pong and Poker in the dorms.
At the age of 18 I walked into a pool room for the first time and fell into a world of hustlers and gamblers that educated me in almost every form of gambling and street hustles imaginable. Poker for the first time became a serious past time. The games were very different from what I was used to, the stakes were serious and the competition was serious.

TOS: When did you know this was something you wanted to do professionally?
DA: I was first exposed to casino poker in 1997 and fell in love with it right away. I loved the game selection, the structure, and most of the earning potential for someone with superior skill. But, like most I went broke at the tables a hundred times until I finally had enough experience and reached a skill level that I could hold my own consistently. I moved up in limits quickly at that point, until I was playing the biggest games available in Atlantic City (400-800 limit poker).
Even though I considered myself a professional poker player (playing 40-60 hours a week) by the end of 1998, I maintained a professional business life as well. I believe that was crucial in my survival and ability to move up in the poker world. By the end of 2001 I was making just as much or more money playing poker than I was as an owner of two businesses. This is when it became very hard for me to justify maintaining and growing my businesses while playing poker at least 60 hours a week (mostly Thursday night to Sunday night).
I believe it is a great misconception for 99% of the young poker players today to think that all they have to do is play poker. Over half of all the successful poker professionals past and present that I know, have outside business interests that provide consistent income and enhance their annual bottom line. In reality, most poker professionals are not just poker professionals.

TOS: Have you always been good at reading people, or was it something you learned as you played?
DA: I believe that many things have lead to my ability to read people and situations properly and effectively. From the very beginning, being an abandoned and adopted child lay the foundation for me to be more aware of my surroundings and the people around me. I also give lots of credit to my adopted parents. They are educated and thoughtful people, and they taught me to question and research things that are important and interest me.
Probably the most important factor besides my childhood is my pool hall education. I will always hold academic education in high regard and hold my college degree as a personal accomplishment. But, the most practical and useful tools I’ve learned in the past 20 years have all come from being exposed to the huge spectrum of people that can be found in pool rooms. Pool hustlers, street hustlers, bookies, criminals, and self made millionaires were some of my best teachers.
In that Darwinist environment, you can only survive and prosper by honing your people skills. After 12 years of pool rooms, reading people and my environment has become an unconscious reflex. Being able to identify and profile the person I’m dealing with in the first 60 seconds is a tool I use everyday. In poker, I can usually have a working profile of everyone at the table in the first 5 minutes. This is most valuable in a poker tournament situation when you are forced to deal with table changes and new opponents all the time without the luxury of getting to know them first.

TOS: Are there certain tells that you see more often than others?
DA: For most beginners the obvious tells of body language are cool and fun to learn. When you’re playing with experienced and skillful players, these tells usually go out the window. I always start with my profile and psychological read of my opponent first. That is the most dependable and consistent method, and all the information and tells that follow are exponentially more valuable and accurate if you start with a profile first.

TOS: Do you have a different personality at the poker table than you do in real life?
DA: “You are who you are at the poker table.” My experience has taught me that most of the time people can’t help but be themselves at the poker table. All their strengths, weaknesses, and tendencies come out eventually. A liar and a cheat will be a liar and a cheat at the poker table. A housewife will be a housewife, and an aggressive salesman will be an aggressive salesman.
Based on this theory, I usually try to keep a low profile at the table when I’m in a serious situation. Most of the top players will try and project an image of strength, either quiet confidence or loud and cocky. Just like a false physical tell, these are false images of themselves.

TOS: What’s the most you’ve ever won in one session?
DA: I’ve had several winning sessions of $100-120k. My biggest holdem pot ever was just over $34k, and my biggest Stud pot was just over $48k.
The holdem pot was funny because I walked down from my suite in the Taj around 9AM, found a $400-800 Limit Holdem game had just started. I posted behind the button, and 5 hands later I got KK second to act and got 8 way capped action pre-flop. I didn’t post my blinds, racked up and went back to bed.

TOS: Most you ever lost?
DA: The most I ever lost in one session was 96k playing $300-600 Stud8 and Holdem for three days.
The biggest holdem pot I ever lost was $36k in a Pot-Limit Holdem game. I made a blind raise on the button, flopped the nut straight versus a set of Queens and lost to a full-house on the river.

TOS: What’s the longest session you’ve ever had?
DA: I’ve had two sessions last just over 72 hours. That will never happen again.

TOS: How do you feel about online poker?
DA: I believe the best times are long gone for the professional poker player who is playing online. When I started playing online, the average internet player was 3 times worse than the average casino player. Now the exact opposite is true.
The best two positive arenas of online poker are the huge multi-table tournaments and the accelerated experience you gain by playing online.

TOS: Tell us about your 2004 run.
DA: It was one of the greatest times of my life, and hardest things I’ve ever done. I got my 15 minutes of fame and became a minor poker celebrity from it. Everyone always asks me about the money I won, but at the time the $120k I won wasn’t a big deal. The cash games I was playing in had 6 figure swings almost every session.



Some of my favorite experiences and memories from the 2004 WSOP main event:

  • The atmosphere and feel of tradition at The Horseshoe can never be replaced!
  • It was the first huge field for the main event and had the most first timers to that point. The air was filled with fear from the players on the first day. It was so prevalent you could cut it with a knife!
  • The exposure to so many great tournament players from around the world. Especially the Europeans who at the time, I believe were the best NL tournament players in the world.
  • Playing perfect poker for 5 days straight. Never having all my chips in the middle needing help on the river.
  • The experience showed me I could play great under the tremendous pressure and on the biggest stage.

TOS: Do any hands stand out for you now, four years later?
DA: Usually the hand that knocks you out is the hand most remember the most. For me it was the first two hands of day 6 that I remember most because they set me up to be knocked out later.
On the 6th day of the tournament, I had 1.45 million in chips, which was good enough for 3rd chip position out of the remaining 32 players. First hand of the day, I’m on the button and everyone folds to me. I look down at my hand, AK offsuit, what a beautiful way to start the day! I liberally toss about 70k in for a raise (blinds were at 6 and 12k with a 1k ante), and the small blind thinks for a minute and declares himself all in! I beat him into the pot, knowing this young internet player from the past three days has made several dumb moves.
For a very brief moment I had him, his head slumped on his shoulders and he turned over A6 off. On the first hand of the day, he shoved over 400k into the pot against the chip leader of the table completely dominated. A single 6 fell on the flop and his blunder turned into roses for him and I lost almost a third of my chips to a 3 outer.
Less than 5 minutes later, another young internet player decides to shove about 400k under the gun. I look at my cards, Aces! I smooth call hoping to get extra action. We are heads up, the director tells him to turn over his hand, and he shrugs and mumbles, and turns over 99. Another dominating situation for me aces against nines. I briefly think about my opportunity to recover most of the chips I lost just minutes prior.
The flop comes 9 high, and my head exploded. I stood up and smashed my huge stack of chips and said, “Your name must be Moneymaker!”
After playing perfect poker for 5 days straight, I was rewarded by losing just over half my chips to a 2 and 3 outer. Two hands that if I won, would have easily positioned me for the final table and over a million guaranteed. My road to poker glory would have been all but complete. Instead, I lost both hands and was left in a position that I had to gamble and play aggressive to regain my top position. This lead to my ultimate demise of having the eventual winner Greg Raymer to my left and he busted me after the first break.

TOS: How often do you think about the key three hands on that sixth day that ended your final table run?
DA: It took me a full year to recover mentally from being robbed by the poker gods of the greatest win a poker player can have. Even now, every time I talk about it, it brings some emotions to the top.

TOS: What is your favorite hand?
DA: As a professional poker player and cash game grinder, you are not supposed to have a so called favorite hand. But as a gambler, I have a weakness for 98 suited in cash games, and Ace Queen suited in tournaments.

TOS: Aside from poker, what do you do for fun?
DA: As a new father and family man, I truly enjoy spending time and having fun with my kids. Even the anticipation of experiences to come is great.
I still play pool once a month and will I probably never get the chalk dust out of my blood. I also enjoy writing and teaching about poker and other things.
I have been a die hard NY Giants fan for twenty-five years and an avid NFL and college football fan for almost twenty years. I like fantasy football and sometimes join five to six leagues. I have also been a successful football handicapper for over a decade.

TOS: So what does the future hold for you?
DA: I have decided to leave full time poker to raise my kids and take care of my elderly parents. I will be focusing on starting a new career or business probably for the next 10-15 years. Poker and my poker dreams will always be there when I’m ready to return.

TOS: Davin, thank you so much for your time, and good luck to you in all your future endeavors.

NL West Preview

Our last baseball preview comes after the second game of the regular season has already been played, but they happened in Tokyo so they don't really count. I hope you all enjoyed my previews. I tried to combine insightful analysis with sharp and witty humor all while staving off my hatred for David for making me do this. I'll be back when I feel like it. Don't wait up. Ladies and gentlemen... the NL West:


NL WEST

Arizona Diamondbacks
2007 Finish: 90-72, 1st, Lost to COL in NLCS
David’s 2008 Prediction: 85-77 (-5) 3rd

Josh’s Analysis:
The 2007 Diamondbacks were third worst in the National League in runs and gave up twenty more runs than they scored. Yet they still finished with a record eleven wins better than their expected win-loss tally. What does that mean? Yes, that’s right, glad you’ve been paying attention: they were lucky! And luck is not a repeatable skill (I’ve tried to convince David to make that our new motto to no avail). Arizona’s run to the NLCS was surprising to say the least. I tip my hat to GM Josh Byrnes who could have stood pat after building a team that reached the penultimate playoff series. Instead, he made a significant and fiscally responsible acquisition when he traded six prospects for Oakland’s ace Dan Haren. Haren is under contract through 2010 at the very reasonable price of $16.25 million… total. With that acquisition, the D’Backs now have one of the best one-two punches in baseball. Brandon Webb, who turns twenty-nine in May, already boasts a Cy Young award on his mantle and Dan Haren is already an elite pitcher and he’s just twenty-seven. Some might chide Byrnes for trading away young phenom Jose Valverde after his monster season but I applaud him for selling high. The Astros gave up three players for the closer including two that can help immediately (Chad Qualls and Juan Gutierrez), both of whom will compete with frontrunner Brandon Lyon for the vacated closer position.

While Byrnes made some very significant moves insofar as his pitching goes, he basically stood pat with his lineup. I can’t really fault him for that. Though his lineup lacks a true superstar, he has a nice mix of steady production guys. That said, BJ Upton's younger brother Justin is at the beginning of what many scouts think will be a hall of fame career; he should be fun to watch. Arizona’s big power threat is sophomore center fielder Chris Young, who hit 32 homeruns in his rookie campaign. Young needs some work, particularly in plate discipline, but most scouts agree that he is a five-tool player with an extremely high ceiling. Seven of the Diamondback’s eight anticipated opening day starters put up at least ten homeruns in 2007 (Chad Tracy, was on pace for 16, but was limited to only 76 games due to injury). There’s a lot to be excited about for Diamondbacks fans, reigning NL Manager of the Year Bob Melvin has a nice collection of young, high-ceiling talent to work with and the D’backs should be a power in the West for a number of years. Still, in light of how much luck Arizona needed to finish where they did last year, combined with the fact that the West is looking like the NL’s toughest division means the snakes will need to see significant improvement from their young players, which I think they will get. I’m picking them to take the West, but in this division expect only a handful of games to separate first place from fourth.

Diamondbacks Questions:
  1. Will Randy Johnson stay healthy long enough to rediscover some of the magic he had in his first stint in the desert? (Unlikely, he turns forty-five this season and his back has been a big problem for the last few seasons)
  2. Will Dan Haren dominate the weaker National League? (Well, the league is weaker but that might be balanced by moving from a great pitcher’s park to a hitter’s nirvana, still I vote yes on proposition Haren)
  3. Will Doug Davis get back to 200 innings? (If he stays healthy he should, he’s a workhorse)
  4. Will Stephen Drew outperform big brother J.D. in 2008? (They both sucked last season, so one of them is likely to improve…Stephen is younger so my money’s on him)
  5. Will this be Arizona’s year? (Probably not, but one never knows…)




Los Angeles Dodgers
2007 Finish: 82-80, 4th
David’s 2008 Prediction: 90-72 (+8) 1st

Josh’s Analysis:
When the talking heads discuss the big market teams that outspend the rest of the league trying to buy championships, they are typically referring to the Yankees, Red Sox and Mets (who boast a combined six championships and nine pennants since the realigning of the divisions in 1995). But they are also referring to the Dodgers, who are a permanent resident among the top six team payrolls since 1999. And for all that money spent they have exactly one playoff victory (in three appearances) since they last won it all in 1988. So is this going to be LA’s year? To win it all, probably not. To make the playoffs and maybe even win a game or two once there, could be! GM Ned Colletti made some good moves this winter, but none spoke louder than the pilfering of the winningest manager in the majors over the last twelve years. Hiring Joe Torre to manage the Dodgers was a clear sign that the team is going to be competing now.

As far as players go, there’s a lot to be optimistic about. The Dodgers outbid the Mariners for Japanese pitcher Hiroki Kuroda, a groundball specialist with a deceptive delivery. Since we’re talking about both a pitcher and a Japanese League transplant we’ll flip two coins to see if he’ll have a good season. Colletti also picked up perennial gold glove center fielder Andruw Jones this off-season. While I am entirely confident that Jones will return to form in 2008, and I do think it was a good risk for the Dodgers, I still say the fact that following a .222 season he commands a contract that makes him the fifth highest paid player in baseball by average salary is simply insane. Speaking of insanity, someone from the Dodgers organization needs to explain to me the thinking behind playing Juan Pierre on a daily basis. Pierre is such a bad baseball player that it is just plain criminal to allow him to clog up a roster spot when there are talented youngsters waiting in the minors for a chance to shine. The Dodgers would be better served by just swallowing nine million dollars a year and cutting him.

Good news! Nomar is already in mid-season form… his wrist is broken and he will be missing at least the first week of the season. All joking aside though, Penny, Lowe and Kuroda are a solid top three. Broxton is a very good reliever and Takashi Saito was one of the most dominating closers in baseball last season. Furcal and Kent make for a solid middle of the infield. Right fielder Matt Kemp had a breakout season and will look to build on that. Scouts love him and he has a nice compact swing. The Dodgers have a great mix of veterans and young talent and Joe Torre knows how to get the best out of both. They should be a fun team to watch this year.

Dodgers Questions:

  1. Will Andruw Jones have a bounce back year? (Since I’ve already used the comeback player of the year joke twice now, I’ll just say there’s no way he doesn’t improve on his 2007 showing)
  2. Will Nomar finally get back to 500 at-bats? (Surely you jest… he’s already injured!)
  3. … How about Jeff Kent? (The oft-injured second baseman missed the mark by six in 2007, but he’s not getting any younger or healthier)
  4. Will Juan Pierre continue to have a starting job despite being so criminally horrible that he is hurting the team? (Excellent question! Upper management has nearly fifty million invested in him and Torre is infamous in New York for continuing to play horrible players to the team’s detriment. See: Farnsworth, Kyle)
  5. Will Torre keep his streak of thirteen straight playoff appearances alive? (If his team stays healthy I think there is an excellent chance)




San Diego Padres
2007 Finish: 89-74, 3rd
David’s 2008 Prediction: 89-73 (NC) 2nd (WC)

Josh’s Analysis:
I enjoyed the Padres collapse over the last two games of the season because it shined a glaring spotlight on something I have been saying for years: Trevor Hoffman is not the greatest closer of all time, simply the best saves compiler… and a bit of a choker to boot. Hoffman needed only to put away a .260 pinch hitter to close out a one run lead and clinch the wild card on the last day of the season. Instead he gave up a run scoring triple to Tony Gwynn Jr. and the Friars were forced into a one game playoff with streaking Colorado. In what became an instant classic, the Pods took a two run lead into the thirteenth inning and once again they called upon the all-time saves leader to notch the final three outs and send them to the postseason. But for the second consecutive game he blew the lead and the Padres were sent packing. Still, Hoffman is certainly a competent enough closer and Heath Bell and Cla Meredith are two of the best middle relievers in the sport (though they had a combined 161 appearances in 2007, so their arms may actually fall off in 2008).

San Diego has a very good pitching staff, anchored by perpetual Cy Young contender Jake Peavy, who won the NL triple crown in 2007. He has a good supporting cast in Chris Young and an ageless Greg Maddux, but they are two of the worst pitchers in the majors at keeping runners close, and with catcher Josh Bard throwing out a paltry 7.6% of would-be base-stealers in 2007, I would look for many teams to run on them. Disabled List poster-boy Mark Prior supposedly has his eye on the fifth starter job, but he has been met with understandable skepticism.

Adrian Gonzalez is the Padres’ big power threat, but he needs to work on his plate discipline. He is slow as molasses but a very good defender at first base. Kevin Kouzmanoff had a very respectable rookie outing and will look to build on that. He destroys left handed pitching, but needs to work on his plate discipline. He also needs someone to teach him the fundamentals at the hot corner where he is a below average fielder with a strong, but erratic arm. Khalil Green is an above average shortstop with a strong bat, but he needs to work on… wait for it… his plate discipline! The Padres sport a lineup that goes to the plate to but bat on ball, they don’t see a ton of pitches and they don’t walk much. Headed into their fiftieth season, the franchise with the worst winning percentage of all time (for a team not from Tampa Bay) will continue their quest for that elusive first World Series championship. They will likely be in the mix until late in the season, but they’ll have to wait another year at least for that ring.

Padres Questions:

  1. Will Kouzmanoff suffer from a sophomore slump? (How the hell should I know?)
  2. Will Mark Prior start at least ten games? (Absolutely! Oh, you mean at the Major League level? No, probably not)
  3. Will Maddux and Young have solid seasons behind Peavy? (Call it in the air…)
  4. Will Trevor Hoffman choke at a key moment in the season? (Its what he does)
  5. Will this be their year? (I could lie to you, but then that would be wrong, wouldn’t it?)



Colorado Rockies
2007 Finish: 90-73 2nd (WC), Lost to BOS in WS
David’s 2008 Prediction: 84-78 (-6) 4th

Josh’s Analysis:
Houston, Detroit… Colorado? The last two World Series runners-up didn’t even make the playoffs in defense of their pennant, will Colorado join them? Sadly for the mile-high faithful, it looks like they may. As I’ve already mentioned, the West is shaping up to be a truly competitive division, with four legitimate contenders for the top spot. Colorado had to win thirteen of fourteen games to finish out the regular season and get some help from Milwaukee just to force a one game playoff for the right to advance as a wild card. Colorado has a good young core of players, but as the saying goes, if you’re standing still, you’re moving backwards. The Rockies didn’t do anything significant by way of improving their team this winter and that’s going translate into problems this season.

Still, I wouldn’t be too shocked if the Rockies made a legitimate run at the West. They have some really good players and their mediocre ones look better because of the benefits of playing at Coors Field. Garrett Atkins and Troy Tulowitzki make up the best left side of the infield on both sides of the ball outside of New York and Detroit. Matt Holliday is a legitimate MVP contender every year and he gets a nice boost on the offensive side of things from playing where he does. Willy Taveras is bargain shopper’s Juan Pierre with one notable exception: he’s much better! Taveras is a speedster with very little pop in his bat, but he actually gets on base enough to make up for the lack of slugging. He also takes good routes to balls in center thus increasing his range. Lastly he has a strong, accurate arm which is crucial in Colorado’s cavernous center field. Ryan Spilborghs had a good showing in limited appearances and will likely platoon in right field with Brad Hawpe, giving the Rockies four true outfielders to work with.

Colorado has an above average pitching staff, led by Jeff Francis and power sinkerballer Aaron Cook. Ubaldo Jimenez had a respectable showing for a rookie and the Rockies are counting on him improving in his sophomore season. Manny Corpas was one of the best closers in the NL in the second half last year, and Brian Fuentes is a very good setup man. On paper, this team is just one or two pieces shy of being a legitimate power, and I would look for GM Dan O’Dowd to look to pick up another starter and maybe an upgrade at backstop at the deadline. Then again, they play the games because what’s on paper doesn’t usually translate into predictable results. Just ask the 2007 Rockies.

Rockies Questions:

  1. Will Matt Holliday finally win that MVP? (He’s always in the running)
  2. Will Tulowitzki have an impressive sophomore campaign? (All signs point to this kid being the real thing)
  3. Will commentators continue to misunderstand what the humidor does and how it helps? (Sadly, yes)
  4. Will the Rockies make the playoffs? (I’m not discounting the possibility, but they would need a perfect storm)



San Francisco Giants
2007 Finish: 71-91, 5th
David’s 2008 Prediction: 72-90 (+1) 5th

Josh’s Analysis:
I refuse to spend more than a paragraph discussing the Giants. Seems only fair, their front office refuses to field a competitive team. This is an organization whose one bright light in the last two decades was their 2002 run to game seven of the World Series. This is an organization that believes the best option for them at shortstop is forty year old Omar Vizquel with his career .621 OPS (who they re-signed this winter). This is an organization who gave Barry Zito a seven year one hundred twenty-six million dollar contract. Finally, this is an organization that rivals Baltimore in their complete and utter lack of hope for the future. They have an absolutely horrid farm system. They insist on signing and playing aging over-the-hill veterans (Vizquel, Durham, Winn) and slightly above average overpaid free agents (Aaron Rowand and Zito) instead of just admitting that they need to be rebuilding. They have two of the best young pitchers in the game and they spent the winter shopping one of them! They need to open up roster spots for youngsters, why spend that kind of money when they have no hope of competing? Finally, much like the O’s the only thing the Giants have going for them is a gorgeous stadium.

Giants Questions:
(Note: I’m doing something a little different for this one and actually asking questions someone should be asking the Giants organization)

  1. Why commit sixty million dollars to a mediocre center fielder when you have no hope of competing in the next four years?
  2. Are you telling me that there isn't a kid somewhere who would make twelve million less than Vizquel, be as useless at the plate and as efficient in the field?
  3. If you are stupid enough to resign Vizquel because he is a fan-favorite, and you are stupid enough to overpay hacks, why not sign fan-favorite Bonds, controversy and all, to a one year deal and at least draw fans to the park?
  4. Why the hell did you give Barry Zito a hundred twenty-six million dollars?
  5. Why would you spend the winter trying to trade away one of two bright spots in your organization (Lincecum) for a handful of mediocre stopgaps that won’t improve your chance of competing in the short term?
  6. Why do you hate your fans?
  7. Do you kill puppies too?

Wednesday, March 19, 2008

NL Central Preview

With just over five days until the A's and Sox open up the 2008 baseball season in Japan, we bring you our second to last preview: the NL Central. I know, I'm getting a little misty myself. The NL Central, with its six lousy teams shocked many people by peeling off three straight NL pennants from 2004-2006 after not sending a single team to the Fall Classic since its inception in 1995. Let's get to it:


NL CENTRAL

Chicago Cubs
2007 Finish: 85-77, 1st, Lost to ARI in NLDS
David’s 2008 Prediction: 88-74 (+3) 2nd

Josh’s Analysis:
Good things happen to those who finally realize that you can’t build a team around two pitchers who spend so much time on the disabled list that they get their mail there. The Cubs gave up on Kerry Wood and Mark Prior and started spending money and (excuse the pun) it paid off. Between Soriano, Ramirez, Lilly, Marquis, Zambrano and now Fukudome, the Cubbies have committed nearly four hundred million dollars over the last two seasons. Amazingly, the Cubs’ pitching staff was one of the best in the league. They led baseball with 1,211 strikeouts and were second in the NL with a 4.04 ERA. When ace Carlos Zambrano isn’t mixing it up with his catcher in the dugout he is one of the best in the business. Despite his history of injury, Ted Lilly was a legitimate number two guy last season. Hill and Marquis will be joined by former closer Ryan Dempster to fill out the Cubs rotation. Chicago enters the season with no one assigned to the closer role, but Bob Howry, Carlos Marmol and none other than Kerry Wood will compete for the job. Wood is considered to be the frontrunner for the position (of course, as I write this, the Cubs announced the Wood has back spasms and is day to day, shocking... nobody).

Japanese sensation Kosuke Fukudome brings his bat and speed to right field for the Cubs. Fukudome is coming off shoulder surgery in August and I’m always wary of Japanese imports. Soriano got off to a slow start last year, but by season’s end he was showing the nation why the Cubs gave him all those bags of cash. He broke his middle finger during spring training, and one wonders what he was using it for at the time, but he should be fine in time for opening day. Derek Lee and Aramis Ramirez join Soriano in anchoring a slightly above average lineup. Fiery Lou Piniella will enter his second season as Cubs manager with two goals: winning consecutive division titles for the first time in club history, and ending the Cubs’ century-long pursuit of that elusive world championship.

Cubs Questions:

  1. Will Kerry Wood… you know what; you’ve heard all the Wood questions and the answers never change. (In other words… NO!)
  2. Will the Cubs’ rotation continue to be among the best in the league? (Should be, but as I’ve said before… predicting pitching success is a crapshoot)
  3. Will Fukudome’s performance justify the contract he was given? (Who knows, but I think getting to hear announcers try to pronounce his name for four years makes him worth the money)
  4. How many times will Sweet Lou be ejected in 2008? (The over/under is 6 and I’m taking the over)
  5. Will the Cubs finally win the World Series? (Outlook not so good)
  6. … How about the pennant? (Don’t count on it)



Milwaukee Brewers
2007 Finish: 83-79, 2nd
David’s 2008 Prediction: 90-72 (+7) 1st

Josh’s Analysis:
Just because the end of the Brewers’ season didn’t match the scale of the Mets’ September collapse, doesn’t mean it wasn’t disappointing. The Brewers were set to claim their first playoff appearance in a quarter century before the bottom fell out. The Brew-Crew were tied with the Cubbies for first place with a mere ten games to play, but manager Ned Yost came unwound, getting ejected in consecutive games down the stretch as Milwaukee split their last ten games and finished two games back in baseball’s weakest division. Still, there was plenty of good in the Brewers’ 2007 campaign. Ryan Braun was the NL Rookie of the Year despite not being called up till the last week of May, and it was a no-brainer. He broke Mark McGwire’s twenty year old record for slugging percentage by a rookie with an astounding .634. His plate discipline needs work; he doesn’t walk and he strikes out a lot. He’s a below average defender at the hot corner and the Brewers would be better served by moving him to a corner outfield spot. Still, Braun is a mammoth threat at the plate and he has some of the best protection in baseball in Prince Fielder. Speaking of Prince Fielder, his fifty home run showing in his sophomore season had him coming in third in the NL MVP voting. So the Brewers rewarded their elite first baseman with a whopping 255,000 dollar raise, and Prince let the world know how unhappy he was about that.

Looking forward to 2008, Brewers fans have a lot to be excited about. Ace Ben Sheets, who was injured for a large portion of 2007, is expected to be at full strength and anchor an above average rotation that features young upstart Yovani Gallardo. Gallardo filled in nicely for Sheets when he went down and should be a very good number two man. Milwaukee lost both their closer (Francisco Cordero) and premiere setup man (Scott Linebrink) to free agency. GM Doug Melvin responded by picking up Eric Gagne (he of the absolutely horrid showing in Boston last year) and David Riske. Perhaps Gagne’s return to the National League will help him recover some of his prior magic, but I wouldn’t count on it. Other free agent acquisitions include center fielder Mike Cameron (who will have to miss the first 25 games of the season due to suspension) and backstop Jason Kendall. Kendall is a below average hitter and defender (he only threw out 15% of would-be base stealers in 2007) but he has a leadership quality that Melvin hopes will help to guide along their young staff.

Brewers Questions:

  1. Will Ben Sheets finally get back to two hundred innings? (Yet another question recycled from 2007, 2006 and 2005)
  2. Will Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder continue to obliterate opposing pitching? (Their stocks should both be sound investments for many years)
  3. Will Gagne have a bounce back year? (Hell, if he keeps his ERA under five he should be a lock for comeback player of the year)
  4. Will the Brewers return to the postseason for the first time since 1982? (They’ve got a great shot, but I still say the Cubs are the favorites in the Central)



Cincinnati Reds
2007 Finish: 72-90, 5th
David’s 2008 Prediction: 75-87 (+3) 3rd

Josh’s Analysis:
The Cincinnati Reds had been the quintessential example of false hope for most of the decade. They would storm out of the gate and fool people into thinking they were a true contender for a few months before completely tanking in the second half. In 2007 the Reds abandoned the false hope campaign, opting instead for a first half tanking that resulted in the mid-season firing of manager Jerry Narron. Owner Bob Castellini decided to show fans his dedication to winning now by hiring Dusty Baker as the new manager over the winter. Dusty Baker's last managerial stint (with the Cubs in 2006) ended with his very public firing after finishing dead last in the six-team division. But he claims he is reinvigorated after a year in the booth. There isn’t much about the Reds that makes you confident that they can be truly significant in 2008. While Baker may indeed be an improvement over Narron and his interim replacement (Pete Mackanin), he won’t be enough to push the Reds into serious contention.

Still, there are a handful of bright spots for a team that last played significant October ball when they won it all in 1990. Despite anchoring staff that sported the National League’s worst ERA in 2007 (4.94), Aaron Harang showed he has legitimate ace potential. Harang has pitched back to back seasons with at least 230 innings pitched, 215 strikeouts, fewer than 60 walks allowed and sub-4.00 ERA. He is a workhorse on an otherwise lousy staff. After a resurgent 2006 that had Red Sox fans crying in their chowdah, Bronson Arroyo returned to his former self in 2007, showing significant regression in every measurable category. Still, many Cincinnati faithful (and I’m assured that there are still a handful of them) point to his poor run support last season in explaining away his dismal win/loss record (9-15), and I say whatever helps them sleep at night. Picking up free agent Francisco Cordero should help solidify their bullpen.

On the offensive side of the ball, the Reds are a mess. The crown jewel of the organization is left fielder Adam Dunn. Four straight years of at least forty homeruns is certainly nothing to sneeze at, but neither is averaging 182 strikeouts a season. Dunn is the ultimate prototype for the "3 true outcome" player: no need to get those silly fielders involved in most of his at bats. His defense is also lousy and getting worse. I would imagine Dunn will be looking for a DH job in the American League when he becomes a free agent this winter. Thirty-eight year old Ken Griffey Jr. had a nice enough 2007, playing 144 games and reaching 500 at-bats for the first time since his inaugural season in Cincinnati in 2000. Still, counting on Griffey at this point in his career would be a lot like counting on a roulette wheel. Despite what Castellini and GM Wayne Krivsky would have you believe, this is not going to be the year that the Reds return to the postseason.

Reds Questions:

  1. Will Adam Dunn lead the league in strikeouts? (Not a forgone conclusion with Ryan Howard in the equation)
  2. Will Harang reach 200 innings for a fourth straight year? (As long as he stays healthy, this one should be a cinch)
  3. Will Scott Hatteberg build on his impressive 2007 and hit .300 again? (He’s shown improvement two years running and was on pace for a career year in AVG, OBP and SLG but at age 38, it might be too late for him)
  4. Will Brandon Phillips have another 30/30 season? (He barely got there in his second full season with Cincy so I’m going with no)
  5. Will Griffey get to 600 homeruns? (Hmmm… he needs seven more… he’d have to stay healthy for about two weeks… this is a tough one, but I’ll go with yes)
  6. Will the Reds regret keeping future star Jay Bruce and the up and coming Joey Votto in the minors in order to play retreads? (If they miss the playoffs by a couple games, this will go down as a monumentally brainless, yet predictable, choice)
  7. Will the Reds make the playoffs? (No, but watch out for them in the future)



Houston Astros
2007 Finish: 73-89, 4th
David’s 2008 Prediction: 71-91 (-2) 4th

Josh’s Analysis:
As I argue in my Baltimore preview, a team is either trying to win a championship, is rebuilding, or is just plain robbing their fans. Welcome to Houston, prepare to be robbed. It is always difficult to admit that merely two years removed from a pennant-winning season, you are in full-scale rebuilding mode, but that is where Houston needs to be right now. They simply do not have enough pieces to compete this season, and they have plenty of chips to trade in a full-blown rebuilding effort. Firing both the GM (Tim Purpura) and manager (Phil Garner) is a step in the right direction; now its time to fully commit to rebuilding.

The Astros have seen two of their “Killer Bee’s” retire in the last two seasons, leaving first baseman Lance Berkman and ace Roy Oswalt as the key holdovers from their 2005 run. Berkman had a perfectly acceptable 2007, but he set new career lows in AVG, OBP and SLG. It is certainly possible that this was just an off season, but the ‘stros would be wise to move him ASAP before there is a chance for the thirty-two year old to prove that he has begun to decline for good and his value crashes. Undisputed ace Roy Oswalt would command a king’s ransom on the trade market, but his complete no-trade clause complicates matters for the organization. The rest of Houston’s rotation is a complete mess. Brandon Backe showed glimmers of excellence in September after returning from Tommy John surgery and it remains to be seen if he can sustain that over a full season. Wandy Rodriguez and Woody Williams were both abysmal and I predict more of the same in 2008. The acquisition of last year’s surprise phenom closer Jose Valverde is expected to shore up a bullpen that has been lacking since Brad Lidge’s psyche was essentially murdered by Albert Pujols in 2005. A quick look at Valverde’s career seems to indicate that the soon-to-be-twenty-nine-year-old only performs well in odd numbered years (sub-2.70 ERA in 03, 05 and 07… greater than 4.20 ERA in 04 and 06). For Houston’s sake, lets hope that is just a coincidence.

Looking forward to the 2008 campaign, I see very little to be excited about. Miguel Tejada is an upgrade of epic proportions at short over the laughable Adam Everett. Tejada had a pretty lousy year by his own standards in 2007 and I would look for him to return to form in 2008. Unfortunately for Houston, Tejada is famously intolerant of teams that are not immediate contenders and by the time Houston is significant again, Tejada will be past his prime. He is already a below average fielder and Houston may be better off moving him to the hot corner. Carlos Lee did a nice job of justifying the contract he was given following the 2006 season (you know, kinda), and I see no reason to think that will change. When the trade deadline rolls around and the Astros are already out of contention, I would look for new GM Ed Wade to make some moves toward some serious rebuilding (ah, but will I find it?).

Astros Questions:

  1. Will Roy Oswalt finally win that Cy Young? (Unlikely, with Santana in the NL now and the lack of run support making it difficult to accumulate “shiny” numbers such as Wins for the moronic voters to get excited about, it doesn’t look good)
  2. Will Carlos Lee put up another 30/100? (Vote yes on proposition Lee)
  3. Will the Astros’ best prospect, Hunter Pence, suffer from a sophomore slump? (That would be unfortunate, he was one of the best rookies in baseball in 2007 finishing third in RoY voting)
  4. Will Ed Wade opt for a full-scale rebuilding effort? (Here’s hoping, but not expecting)
  5. Will Tejada spark some sort of controversy? (As certain as death and taxes)



St. Louis Cardinals
2007 Finish: 78-84, 3rd
David’s 2008 Prediction: 70-92 (-8) 5th

Josh’s Analysis:
The 2007 Cardinals essentially defined bad luck. Their ace and perpetual Cy Young contender Chris Carpenter went down after one start and had season ending Tommy John surgery. Mark Mulder was limited to three starts and had season ending rotator cuff surgery. Yadier Molina had season ending knee surgery in September. Second baseman Adam Kennedy had season ending knee surgery in August. Center fielder Jim Edmonds was limited to only 117 games due to various injuries. Carpenter is expected to be back shortly after the All-Star break, Mulder should return to the rotation in mid-April, Molina is slated to be the opening day catcher, and Edmonds was traded away. Still, there is no telling how effective any of them will be following their surgeries. If Carpenter and Mulder can regain their previous form, the Cardinals will have a surprisingly passable rotation. Adam Wainwright did a great job of filling in for Carpenter last season in his first season as a starter. Brandon Looper, on the other hand, was at best a below average pitcher in his transition from the bullpen to the rotation. Matt Clement is expected to vie for a spot in the rotation after missing all of 2007 recovering from his shoulder surgery. In the bullpen there is no reason to believe that Jason Isringhausen won’t continue to be one of the best (ok, most servicable) closers in the game.

Discussion of the Cards’ offense begins and ends with Albert Pujols. What is there to say about Prince Albert that has not already been said? He opened his career with seven straight seasons of 30/100. He has incredible plate discipline; he doesn’t strike out and he walks plenty. Unlike most slugging first basemen, his defense is a real plus for the team. He is one of the best all around players in the game. After Pujols, the pickings are pretty slim in St. Louis. Rick Ankiel was the feel-good story of 2007 after he washed out as a pitcher and reinvented himself as an outfielder, but the shine of that story is likely to be gone in 2008. If he can produce the way he did in 2007 for a full season, he may just be a serviceable position player. But look for highly rated prospect Brian Barton to take over center if Ankiel doesn’t meet expectations early on. If everything falls into place for the Cards they could hang around until late August, but I wouldn’t count on them being a factor beyond that.

Cardinals Questions:

  1. Will Chris Carpenter return to form when he rejoins the team? (Pitchers returning from Tommy John surgery are always unpredictable, but he should be good to go)
  2. Will Albert Pujols post his eighth straight 30/100 season? (YES!)
  3. Will Rick Ankiel put up 30 homeruns? (NO!)
  4. Will Adam Kennedy crack .220 this season? (All indications seem to point to 2007 just being a fluke, he should return to full mediocre form in 2008)
  5. Will LaRussa be fired this year? (Seems like a distinct possibility, recently fired GM Jocketty was his biggest supporter within the organization)



Pittsburgh Pirates
2007 Finish: 68-94, 6th
David’s 2008 Prediction: 66-96 (-2) 6th

Josh’s Analysis:
Good news for Pittsburgh fans! The Pirates are ideally poised to tie a major league record that has stood for sixty years! With one more losing season, the Pirates will match the mark for most consecutive losing seasons (Phillies: 16, 1933-1948). What’s that you say? That isn’t actually good news? Well you try finding something to be excited about in the Pirates organization! Not as easy as it sounds, is it?

I’m going to keep this preview short and sweet. The Pirates stink. Period. They do not have enough on-field talent to be competitive and no number of cosmetic alterations to the front office or coaching staff will change that fact. The Pirates are a bit of an enigma in that one would think that fifteen straight losing seasons would produce the best farm system in baseball. But that isn’t the case, the Pirates are known for trading away highly rated prospects for short-term stopgaps that do nothing to improve their chances of competing in the long or short term.

Jason Bay had his worst season yet in 2007, hitting career lows in every statistical category. Most scouts anticipate a return to form in 2008. Xavier Nady was a pleasant surprise in his first full season with Pittsburgh and it remains to be seen if he can stay consistent over time. Freddy Sanchez is likely the best all around player on the team, so look for him to be traded soon. Closer Matt Capps and “ace” Tom Gorzelanny both showed incredible promise last season. Starter Ian Snell looked like a legitimate number two man. Still, the Pirates stink. And there is no foreseeable hope in the next few seasons for them either. Poor Pirates fans.

Pirates Questions:

  1. Will the Pirates tie the record for most consecutive losing seasons? (I’ll do you one better, I am guaranteeing that they not only tie the record, but surpass it in 2009)
  2. Will anything good happen for the Pirates this season? (High draft position…)
  3. Will neophyte manager John Russell be fired before season’s end? (6:5 against)
  4. When can Pirates fans expect their team to contend again? (Its best not to focus on arbitrary things like “dates”, lets just say they should settle in for the long haul)

Monday, March 10, 2008

NL East Preview

The long awaited NL East is finally here. I know you've all been waiting for this one (we have two loyal readers at the moment and they are both Mets fans), so here it is. At this point I don't need to bother pointing out to you how wrong David always is... and yet I just did, go figure. Without further ado, your NL East:

NL EAST

New York Mets
2007 Finish: 88-74, 2nd
David’s 2008 Prediction: 102-60 (+14) 1st

Josh’s Analysis:
To say that the end of the Mets’ 2007 campaign did not go quite as planned would be an understatement indeed. While columnists and pundits tend to throw around the words "historic collapse" without much regard for the facts, this was the largest division lead squandered with seventeen games to play in history. The Mets' fall from grace was agonizing to watch; I can't even imagine what it must have been like for a Mets fan. If Minaya had chosen to stand pat this winter, he still could have made an argument that the Mets were the best in the East. However, to truly move on from the 2007 debacle, he needed to do something big.

Well, we all know that the Mets did the biggest thing possible: they traded a handful of decent (and that’s being generous) prospects for the best pitcher in baseball. While the Red Sox and Yanks weren't particularly excited about giving up prospects in addition to an historic contract, Minaya knew that this was a pivotal moment for the organization. If Santana stays healthy, he should dominate the weaker league in one of the best pitcher's ballparks (and don't forget that he gets to face pitchers now instead of designated hitters!). The contract the Mets gave Santana is certainly a reflection of his ability to dominate the league; now it remains to be seen if he can deliver

Beyond the Mets’ new southpaw, the “other New York team” is quite formidable. The rest of their rotation looks solid, though unspectacular. If Pedro can return to even his 2005 form, the Mets will have arguably the best top two they have had in thirty years. Like most teams these days, their bullpen is a big question mark, but it could very well be above average if things go well. Jose Reyes had a terrible second half last year, but should remain the best shortstop in baseball if he can return to pre All-Star break form. Delgado had an off year in 2007, but could have a bounce back year if he can manage to stay healthy. Moises Alou is out till at least May and the Mets will miss his bat early on, but Endy Chavez (whose Game 7 catch in the 2006 NLCS buys him a free pass for life with the Flushing Faithful) will be there to fill in. Lastly, let’s not forget that David Wright was the true MVP of the 2007 season. As the Mets ship was sinking, Wright fought valiantly to keep it afloat. If he can reproduce last season’s effort in 2008, he'll finally have that MVP award adorning his mantle.

Here, have some chills, my treat:

Video: Endy Chavez's leaping catch

Mets Questions:

  1. Will the Mets win the NL Pennant? (They are clearly the NL's best team heading into the season, but if 2007 taught us anything, it is that they play the games for a reason)
  2. Will they win 100 games? (I don’t think they will, but they are the one team in the majors with a real shot at triple digits)
  3. Will John Maine be the incredible pitcher that Mets fans seem to think he already is? (Nope, but he should be a perfectly acceptable number three man, which is exactly what the Mets need him to be)
  4. Will Pedro find a way to be effective? (The best pitcher in baseball history doesn’t need his old stuff to get you out)
  5. Will Santana be clearing space in his trophy case for his third Cy Young? (If he stays healthy it is hard to think of who would be a better choice)



Philadephia Phillies
2007 Finish: 89-73, 1st, Lost to COL in NLDS

David’s 2008 Prediction: 85-77 (-4) 3rd

Josh’s Analysis:
When Jimmy Rollins announced to the world during spring training last year that the Phillies were “the team to beat” in the NL East, the general consensus was “get me a pipe of whatever he’s been smoking”. But as we all know, the deus ex machina reared its ugly head in September, ignoring what we know to be true about Hubris and allowing the heavily favored Mets to blow a seven game lead with seventeen to play. Ignoring for the moment that as a New Yorker I will generally root for the Mets, and there is certainly no love lost between myself and any team calling Philadelphia home, I was downright livid that Jimmy Rollins’ absurd and cocky prediction came to pass. While Rollins may be a superb shortstop and a very good offensive threat, his OBP is too low to convince me he is an elite player; he simply doesn’t walk. Last season’s MVP award (twist the knife, why don’t you?) was only conferred because the Mets’ epic collapse prejudiced the voters against David Wright (who hit .352 during September and was the sole Met who didn’t look like he was suddenly playing for the Bad News Bears).

The Phillies are unquestionably the best offensive team in the National League. They boast the last two NL MVP’s as well as the man who would have been last year’s MVP had he stayed healthy (Utley). Chase Utley is without a doubt the best second baseman in the majors, and the Phillies big three should send most pitchers crying home to mommy. That said however, Ryan Howard is not quite the Adonis people think he is. He broke Adam Dunn’s inauspicious record for strikeouts in a season with 199 last year, and he did it in only 144 games! He would lose a race to first base with a paraplegic, he is a fielder of Ortiz-like proportions and he is either hitting a home run or flying out. Still, he walks a ton and has impressive power so I think the Philies will take the good with the bad.

Pat Gillick had a nice little off-season for himself, giving up rather little for closer Brad Lidge and effectively swapping Aaron Rowand for Geoff Jenkins through free agency. The Phillies of 2007 were built on power hitting and passable pitching. Cole Hamels and Brett Myers are a fine one-two punch at the top, but the rest of their rotation is a complete mess and not to be trusted. Here’s a nickel’s worth of free advice for all pitchers: If your rookie year coincides with the last time the Mets won the World Series, it might be time to consider retirement! Yes, I’m talking to you Jamie Moyer!

Phillies Questions:

  1. Will Brad Lidge finally overcome being manhandled by Pujols in the 2005 NLCS and become and elite closer again? (He’s had two full years of therapy, might be time to move on)
  2. Will Chase Utley be the third straight Philly to win the NL MVP? (He finishes in the top three or your money back)
  3. Will Jimmy Rollins say something stupid to the press? (Some people make the seemingly daunting task of predicting the future quite simple indeed)
  4. Will Ryan Howard top 200 strikeouts this season? (Look on the bright side, at least he’s not hitting into double plays)
  5. Will Jamie Moyer’s fastball ever cross home plate? (Might be time to start calling it something else)




Atlanta Braves
2007 Finish: 84-78, 3rd
David’s 2008 Prediction: 88-74 (+4) 2nd

Josh’s Analysis:
The 2007 Braves are a classic example of a “worst of both worlds” team (See my Toronto Blue Jays preview for definition). They were just good enough to finish a handful of games above .500, but not good enough to really threaten the Mets or Phillies. I am predicting more of the same for 2008. The Braves are an interesting case study; half of their roster is locked in and solid, and the other half is a complete mess. They could have the best three man rotation in the National League (Smoltz, Hudson and Glavine), but they have five guys competing for the final two spots. One of the men looking for a roster spot is none other than Mike Hampton; yes, he is still alive. The thirty-five year old hurler who is apparently made of fiberglass looks to pitch for the first time since mid-2005. Nobody is particularly enthusiastic about his ability to perform, but at the very least he can provide a legitimate power threat off the bench for the tomahawkers. Many scouts think that Rafael Soriano will be a reasonable closer, but if he isn’t, the Braves will be in trouble.

Having Mark Texeira’s loaner bat in the lineup for a full season will be a plus, but I still think the trade was a mistake. The Braves gave up some good prospects to get Texeira for a season and a half with little chance of resigning him when his contract is up this winter (he’s a Boras client and the Braves have a very strict table of what they are willing to spend on players). He simply didn’t make the team good enough to legitimately challenge the Phillies or Mets for a playoff spot. With a little improvement Jeff Francoeur might just be about average for a corner outfielder. Backstop Brian McCann had a disappointing showing last season after a stellar performance in his rookie campaign. The Braves are counting on it being a sophomore slump and nothing more. Replacing Andruw Jones and his .220 batting average in center field this season will be Mark Kotsay… the one center fielder in the majors who fared worse (.214 in 56 games), well done. Overall, three future first ballot hall-of-famers won’t be enough to get this mix of young talent and past-their-prime veterans into October. Maybe next year Atlanta.

Braves Questions:

  1. Will Smoltz get his 3000th strikeout before May 1st? (I think 25 K’s in his first four starts is a pretty safe bet)
  2. Will McCann leave his sophomore slump behind him? (The Braves sure hope so)
  3. Will Glavine be good for 200 innings? (As long as Bobby Cox doesn’t bench him for sucking, he should get there)
  4. Will Hudson continue to perform as well as he did in 2007, or will we see a repeat of 2006? (Trying to predict a pitcher’s performance here so lets be scientific about this: Heads: He’s good, Tails: He sucks)
  5. Will Mike Hampton hold on to a starting job all season? (Vote No on proposition Hampton)
  6. Is anyone else noticing that most of the Braves’ questions pertain to pitching? (And what does that tell you?)




Washington Nationals
2007 Finish: 73-89, 4th
David’s 2008 Prediction: 70-86 (-3) 4th

Josh’s Analysis:
The Minnesota Twins responded to the 2002 contraction discussions by making it to the ALCS, the Nationals (formerly the Expos) have done pretty much the opposite. The Nationals are one of only four franchises to have never won a pennant (even as the Expos). I’d like to say that things will be changing for them in the foreseeable future but alas, it looks like it will be more of the same for quite some time. Not a single one of their starting pitcher’s (and they have seven listed) has a winning record for his career, and only Tim Redding has more than two years of experience. The only truly solid part of their pitching staff is closer Chad Cordero.

On the offensive side of things there are a handful of good players sprinkled in with the mediocrity that is the rest of the team. Ryan Zimmerman is an above average hitter at the hot corner, but his numbers have been in a steady nose dive since his much ballyhooed debut as a September call-up in 2005. Just about every player on this team strikes out far too much. From Dmitri Young to Wily Mo Pena (who turned striking out into an art form) this team has absolutely no plate discipline. Lastings Milledge (one time pearl of the Mets’ farm system who has since fallen from grace) and Elijah Dukes (one time pearl of the Rays’ farm system who has since fallen from grace) join catcher Paul LoDuca as the Nat’s big off-season acquisitions. But it is doubtful that these minor changes will amount to much in terms of team wins. From top to bottom this team has no chance of competing in the NL East and will continue to be irrelevant until Jim Bowden completely cleans house (at the very least, please stop signing guys like Dmitri Young and Ronnie Belliard!).

Nationals Questions:

  1. Will the Nats be last in the league in runs scored again? (I see no reason to believe otherwise)
  2. Will any of their pitchers win fifteen games? (I wouldn’t put money on it)
  3. Will Ryan Zimmerman finally become the premier player everyone seems to think he will be? (Its starting to look more and more like 2005 was the fluke and not the other way around, but maybe leaving the confines of hitter-hell RFK will help)
  4. Will the Nats at least end up with good draft position? (Ah, the one upside to sucking so consistently)




Florida Marlins
2007 Finish: 71-91, 5th
David’s 2008 Prediction: 65-97 (-6) 5th

Josh’s Analysis:
The old adage goes: hitting wins pennants, pitching wins championships. Turns out you need some pitching en route to a pennant as well. Don’t believe me? Ask the Marlins. Like the Nationals, the woeful Marlins’ pitching staff is in shambles. Not one of their six potential starters has a career ERA under 4.80. The Marlins gave up more runs in 2007 than every single team except the Devil Rays. So what was the Marlins’ solution to this dilemma? Trade away the one pitcher they had who had ever shown a glimmer of excellence. Clearly Dontrelle Willis needed to go. After his phenomenal 2005 campaign (22-10, 2.63, 170), his numbers have been in a tailspin the past two seasons. Of course Florida also traded away their one marquee player in Miguel Cabrera. There isn’t a lot to be excited about when it comes to the Marlins. Hanley Ramirez may be the only All-Star on the team. You know what? My mother always told me that if I have nothing nice to say, I shouldn’t say anything at all. And I just can’t come up with a single good thing about the Marlins right now.

Marlins’ Questions:

  1. Will the Marlins suck this season? (Yes)
  2. Will the Marlins give up over 900 runs? (A real possibility, how sad is that?)
  3. Should I bother coming up with any more questions? (Does anyone really care about the Marlins?)

Saturday, March 8, 2008

AL West Preview

Ah, the powerhouse AL West, the four-teamed division so significant that it has produced exactly one pennant winner since the restructuring of the divisions in 1995. Since you are all on the edge of your seat waiting for the analysis, I'll let you get right to it. Just a reminder David=wrong, Josh=right. Enjoy:


AL WEST

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, California, USA, Earth, Sol, Milky Way, Virgo Supercluster...
2007 Finish: 94-68, 1st, Lost to BOS in ALDS
David’s 2008 Prediction: 95-67 (+1) 1st

Josh’s Analysis:
The Angels seem to be the class of the AL West. With the A's “rebuilding” and the Rangers just generally sucking, only Seattle is capable putting pressure on the Angels. Still, it seems unlikely that that pressure will amount to much as October rolls around. The Angels of 2007 were successful due to good starting pitching, a solid bullpen, and an average offense. Expect more of the same in 2008.

The Angels big off-season move was the signing of centerfielder Torii Hunter (formerly of the Minnesota Twins of Minneapolis AND St. Paul). As I mentioned in my Twins preview, giving Hunter ninety million dollars over five years was clinically INSANE. Hunter's reputation for putting up impressive offensive numbers and stellar defense were clearly why he was given such a… shall we say generous deal? But reasonable empirical studies show that both reputations are undeserved. Hunter's power is made essentially irrelevant by his low OBP, and his defense is slightly above average at best. While Peter Gammons seems to think that Hunter is the best human being since Mother Teresa, there is no evidence that a sunny disposition leads to more team wins (except in the case of Patron Saint of New York, Derek Jeter).

My Hunter rant aside, the Angels only real worry is injuries. Escobar, a borderline Cy Young candidate, has already had some early problems. Vlad the Impaler is always gimpy to some degree, and his style of all-out play certainly lends itself to injuries. Their rotation did perform above expectations last year, and relying on pitching consistency is a little like relying on the weatherman to be accurate. This is likely K-Rod’s last season with the Angels and he is not a happy camper after his arbitration letdown. But that may just mean he has something to prove. The 2002 Angels (they of Anaheim, but not Los Angeles) proved that all you need to do is make the playoffs and then get hot. I’m punching the Angels’ October ticket now, whether they get hot or not, is up to them.

Angels Questions:

  1. Will Howie Kendrick finally make the leap to stardom? (I think his stock is a sound investment)
  2. Will Vlad manage to stay healthy and productive? (The Angels should definitely use Hunter to get Vlad to DH most of the time, it would help)
  3. Will the Angels pitching have a solid follow up year? (Sure, why not?)
  4. Will the Angels manage to accomplish being both from Los Angeles and from Anaheim? ("Only God should be all places at once." The gospel according to Samuel L. Jackson)
  5. Will I ever stop making jokes about the naming thing? (No, Sir!)



Seattle Mariners
2007 Finish: 88-74, 2nd
David’s 2008 Prediction: 89-75 (+1) 2nd

Josh’s Analysis:
The 2007 Seattle Mariners were a bit of a smoke and mirrors act. They finished six games out of a playoff spot at a very respectable 88-74 and they were in the hunt until late September. However, a closer look at their numbers will reveal that the M’s gave up nineteen more runs then they scored. According to the widely accepted formula that turns run differential into an expected win-loss record, Seattle should have finished with nine fewer wins than they did… or four games under .500. In laymen’s terms, this means that the M’s were luckier than they should have been. I’ll keep saying it: luck is not a repeatable skill.

Seattle did not choose to stand pat this winter, vigorously pursuing Erik Bedard from Baltimore. The M’s gave up a lot to get Bedard, including highly rated prospect Adam Jones. Bavasi likely could have negotiated a better deal for himself considering that Baltimore was committed to moving Bedard and Seattle was seemingly the only serious bidder. Nonetheless, Bedard is definitely a good fit for Seattle and should do quite nicely in the confines of Safeco Field. Maybe this will be the year he finally hits 200 innings. Ichiro might be overrated due to his high batting average, but his value as a center fielder is off the charts.

Adrian Beltre, who set the bar for overachieving in a contract year (He hit 48 HRs and slugged nearly two hundred points above his career average!) is finally starting to make the contract he conned Seattle into giving him look somewhat reasonable when you take his defense into account. Besides, when you put him on the same team as Richie Sexson (.205/.295/.399 100K’s, 51BB’s in 2007… no, those aren’t typos) Beltre suddenly looks like the second coming of Babe Ruth. ESPN reported false rumors that Sexson was claimed off of waivers last year by Detroit before Seattle pulled him back. I assure you that if Detroit had claimed Sexson off waivers, he would have been a Tiger as soon as Bavasi could physically have bought him a plane ticket. But look at the bright side: considering the numbers Sexson put up last season, even a below average showing in 2008 should make him a shoe-in for Comeback Player of the Year. Overall, the acquisition of Bedard, combined with the fact that Texas and Oakland should be pretty pathetic this season, means that Seattle will finish about where they did last season: second in the West and home by October third.

Mariners Questions:

  1. Can Seattle make a legitimate run at the playoffs? (Sure, but it would probably involve a team-wide case of avian flu for the Angels)
  2. Will Bedard become the ace people seem to think he is? (Well, the Seattle faithful have already penciled him in for 240 innings, so… probably not)
  3. Will King Felix finally be crowned with a Cy Young? (He already has the best stuff in baseball, with Santana is in the NL, this might be his year)
  4. Who will show up this season, Richie Sexson, or Richie Sexson’s rotting corpse? (It is not possible to perform worse than he did in 2007. I’m predicting some improvement… I know what you’re asking yourself: When will he stop with these insane predictions?!)
  5. Will J.J. Putz continue to have the best name in baseball? (I don’t know of any prospects named Quincy Loquacious Douchebag, though my MVP Baseball 2005 once generated a player named Dick Smallenberg… seriously)



Oakland Athletics
2007 Finish: 76-86, 3rd
David’s 2008 Prediction: 68-94 (-8) 4th

Josh’s Analysis:
Despite what you may have read in Moneyball, Billy Beane and the Oakland A’s have not done a good job of drafting in the last half decade or so. After catching lightning in a bottle more times than you might expect in the nineties, (Giambi, Tejada, Zito, Mulder, Hudson) Beane has essentially crapped out in recent drafts, the law of large numbers coming back to bite him in the ass I suppose. The inevitable result of poor drafting is a bankrupted farm system, which means that when starters get injured (as professional athletes are wont to do) there is no one of major league caliber to replace them. With no reasonable shot at making a run at October this season, Beane did the smart thing and opted for a legitimate rebuilding job. Having wisely let Giambi and Tejada seek greener pastures already this decade, Beane decided to commit to Eric Chavez as the face of the franchise. Boy was that a mistake. Chavez’ numbers have been in a steady decline over the last six years in nearly every measurable category.

Dan Haren was incredibly lucky last year, with a large percentage of balls put into play against him being caught. By now you should be able to say it with me: luck is not a repeatable skill! Beane capitalized on Haren’s lucky season by trading him when his stock was highest. One could argue he waited a little too long to trade Swisher, but the A’s got a nice mix of prospects back for the pair. All that’s left is for Beane to trade Blanton, Street and the Oakland Coliseum to finish the job. Rich Harden may never stay healthy enough to become the pitcher that everyone thinks he will be, but with the dawn of each season comes new hope, so A’s fans, keep your fingers crossed. Jack Cust was often billed as a natural DH when he was coming up with the Rockies in 2002. Congratulations Jack, you’ve achieved your destiny. By and large, the A’s are a bit tricky to predict. They were very unlucky last season, with injuries decimating their roster early on. The A’s should be healthier this season and their young players are a year older; they may just be good enough to outperform the Rangers.

Athletics Questions:

  1. Will Bobby Crosby finally win that MVP that Gammons predicted two years ago? (When Gammons is in a coma one day, I will still be making fun of him for that one)
  2. Will the A’s finish their fire sale and trade Blanton and Street? (We’re talking about one of the few rational GM’s in baseball, so yes)
  3. Should we bet on Rich Harden’s health? (The same way that guy at 7-11 is betting on scratch-offs)
  4. Will Eric Chavez have a bounce back year? (In the interest of protecting the environment, this question has been recycled from 2007… and 2006, 2005, 2004…)
  5. Will the A’s be competitive again by 2010? (In Beane we trust…)
  6. Will Billy Beane, author extraordinaire, finally get fair credit for writing Moneyball from baseball scouts? (Hey, Joe Morgan… HE DIDN’T WRITE THE DAMN BOOK!)




Texas Rangers
2007 Finish: 75-87, 4th
David’s 2008 Prediction: 74-88 (-1) 3rd

Josh’s Analysis:
One might think it odd that on the night the Red Sox clinched the World Series in Colorado, the owner of a last place team was popping proverbial champagne corks 888 miles away. But that was exactly what Tom Hicks, owner of the downtrodden Texas Rangers, was probably doing on the evening of October 29th last year. A-Rod’s decision to opt out of the final three years of his contract saved the Rangers – who had agreed to pick up roughly $7 million a season as part of his trade to the Yankees – a fortune. Still, when you’re a last place team and your only significant off-season acquisition is $21.3 million dollars in cash, it is hard to predict good things.

The 2007 Rangers were horrid; I don’t even know where to begin. Their “ace” went 10-14 with a 5.16 ERA, and they are counting on Vincente Padilla, a pitcher with a career ERA over four, to have a “bounce-back” year. They don’t even have a pitcher assigned to close going into the season. They were smart to trade Texeira to the braves at the deadline, but they made a mistake by resigning Michael Young. Young, a fan favorite, is a natural second baseman playing shortstop (and believe me, it shows) whose offensive numbers are inflated by virtue of playing in one of the best hitter’s parks in the majors.

One upside to the fact that Texas has yet to finish better than third this decade is that they have an excellent farm system (which isn’t true of all lousy organizations). Backstop Jarrod Saltamacchia is expected to take the starting job from Gerald Laird (much to the chagrin of baseball announcers everywhere, I'm sure). But if he doesn’t perform up to expectations quickly, he may have to step aside for Taylor Teagarden, a highly rated prospect who hails from the Lonestar State. Contrary to what their state motto might say, this is definitely the year to mess with Texas.

Rangers Questions:

  1. Does anyone care enough about the Rangers to still be reading this? (Doubtful)
  2. Yea, I gotta be honest, I’ve got nothing... Stay tuned for the NL East over the weekend.