I know you have all been on the edge of your seats waiting anxiously for my baseball preview, so here is part one in my six part series. Teams are profiled in the order I predict they will finish. Before each column David chimes in with his predictions (which don't always agree with mine). We'll start with the powerhouse AL East:
AL EAST
Boston Red Sox
2007 Finish: 96-66, 1st, Def. COL in WS
David’s 2008 Prediction: 98-64 (+2) 2nd (WC)
Josh’s Analysis:
The off season was a whole lot of nothing for the Sox, but oh what exciting nothing. After being involved in all types of trade talks, most notably the Johan Santana saga, the Sox basically chose to stand pat. Considering they won the World Series last year, it is hard to seriously question the strategy. Unfortunately, the recent (or recently announced) Schilling injury reduces the flexibility and insurance the Sox had in their starting rotation. They can't really count on Schilling to pitch at all, (despite their belief that a torn rotator cuff can be rehabbed without surgery) and that leaves them with five guys. These five guys include a theoretical ace, a Japanese disappointment with some upside, a knuckleballer with a bad back who had a terrible second half last year, the uber-prospect with the great change, great curve, and history of laptop theft (yeah, that was probably unfair), and the lefty who beat lymphoma.
I think the Red Sox rotation could be very good if everything works out. But if Beckett's 2008 campaign resembles his 2006 more than his 2007, they have a problem. They are also depending on two kids and a possibly washed up Wakefield. I think Buccholz has ace potential and Lester should be a solid two or three guy, but young guys often take lumps early on. Dice-K showed impressive stuff, but he'll need to show better command, bring that ERA below 4.00, and reduce the number of balls that end up on Lansdowne St. (25 HR allowed in 2007) to be a true number two.
Red Sox Questions (and possible answers):
- Will their bullpen be able to continue the impressive (non-Gagne) run they showed in 2008? (Maybe)
- Are the Sox going to be better off now that they have dropped Eric Gagne off at Boston city limits without a map? (Do you hear that soft sobbing coming from the Milwaukee area?)
- Will the rotation dominate/be sufficient/explode? (I broke my Magic 8 ball on this one)
- Will the likely decline of Lowell be balanced by a Manny resurgence or a J.D. Drew sighting? (Sure, why not?)
- Will Ellsbury have enough success to at least balance out Coco Crisp in his first year? (Vote yes on proposition Ellsbury)
- Will Lugo keep his job the whole year? (As a Yankee fan, I sure hope so)
- Will Papelpon continue to be inordinately annoying? (Survey says…yes)
- Will the Red sox beat out the Yankees in the AL East? (Reply hazy, try again)
New York Yankees
2007 Finish: 94-68, 2nd (WC), Lost to CLE in ALDS
David’s 2008 Prediction: 99-63 (+5) 1st
Josh’s Analysis:
The Yankees’ off season basically mirrored the Red Sox off season… in that they did absolutely nothing (in effect at least). Again, it is hard to object too strenuously; the Yanks have a pretty effective mix of aging veterans and young high-ceiling talent. Short of a kidnapping, there weren’t any viable options for the Yanks to improve their woeful bullpen. Adding Santana would certainly have made them a better team in 2008, but the Yankees did not want to give up former number one pitching prospect Phil Hughes, and I cannot fault them for that decision. They were also not particularly excited about giving Santana six or seven years at twenty million per. With Giambi, Farnsworth and Pavano coming off the books after 2008 however, money wasn’t the breaking point, but the Yanks opted to put their faith in their young pitchers and go after Texeira next year. One thing is for certain, Phil Hughes and Johan Santana will be forever linked, for better or for worse.
That said I personally liked the approach. There is something special about seeing the Yanks develop good young talent and sticking with them. The dynasty of the late 90’s was built the same way (Jeter, Rivera, Bernie, Posada, Pettite). I think most fans become more attached to the homegrown kids. Of course, if the kids don’t turn out to be any good, this all pretty much goes right out the window. Joba, Hughes and Kennedy almost certainly won't be the second coming of Maddux, Glavine, and Smoltz, but they do have a good shot at becoming a solid top three anchor for this rotation for years to come.
Yankees Questions (and there are plenty of questions, lemme tell ya):
- Can Joe Girardi manage to get the production he needs out of the LF/DH/1B rotation while keeping all the players involved happy? (Not going to be an easy task)
- Will Andy Pettite move on from the annoying steroid controversy and match his 2007 performance? (Quite possibly)
- Will Wang rebound from his craptacular playoff debacle? (Most likely)
- Will the bullpen be something other than horrible? (-sigh-
will Farnsworth be heavily involved?) - Will the Yanks handle Joba correctly? (They’d better freakin’ hope so)
- Will there be a bona fide Carl Pavano sighting in 2008? (Maybe on the 11 O’clock news)
- Will the Yankees score at least 900 runs? (YES!)
- Will Derek Jeter, my favorite Yankee, get to that groundball to his left? (NO!)
- Will the Yanks edge out the Red Sox in the East? (Reply hazy, try again)
Toronto Blue Jays
2007 Finish: 83-79, 3rd
David’s 2008 Prediction: 88-74 (+5) 3rd
Josh’s Analysis:
I can't imagine I'd be happy to be a Blue Jays fan. They keep making sure they are just good enough to compete but not good enough to be a legitimate playoff threat. Here’s a note to Toronto upper management: eight of the last twelve AL Pennant winners have been from the East. The Yankees and Sox are consistently one and two in money spent, it will take more than cosmetic changes to be a factor in this division. It took an epic collapse by Boston in 2006 to get the Jays a second place finish (still 8 games behind Wild Card winner Detroit). The Blue Jays haven’t made the playoffs since they won it all in 1993. If you combine no October baseball with mediocre draft position every year, you get what I like to call "the worst of both worlds." Alas, the off season doesn't seem to have improved the situation much.
The Jays have the potential for a pretty impressive starting staff. Halladay is an impressive workhorse, and Burnett has ace stuff…but they both need to stay healthy (the odds of which are approximately… -crunches some numbers- ...
Blue Jays Questions:
- Will the starting rotation stay reasonable healthy? (Why would they start now?)
- Will Vernon Wells bounce back from his abysmal year? (Probably)
- Will the ball get from Eckstein's hand to first base? (Eventually)
- Will Rolen stay healthy for a full season? (Surely you jest)
- Will Rios make the jump to a legit 30-100 player or will he continue to be criminally overrated? (Can’t it be both?)
Tampa Bay (Angelic) Rays
2007 Finish: 66-96, 5th
David’s 2008 Prediction: 70-92 (+4) 4th
Josh’s Analysis:
It is really quite amazing what picking in the top five of the amateur draft for a decade can do for you. Every minor league talent evaluator worth his salt and several of those who aren’t will tell you that the Rays farm system is absolutely stacked. They are the clear leader in minor league talent… but major league talent… not so much. The Rays do look like they are on the rise, though. The question is whether their terrible ballpark and low payroll will hold them back. Again.
A lot went right for the Rays last year, well as much can go right for a 66 win, fifth place team. B.J. Upton finally delivered on the promise that everyone said he had; his swing looks positively A-Rod-ish at times. Carlos Pena went from scrapheap to silver slugger. Kazmir's performance continued to make Mets fans everywhere cry themselves to sleep. Delmon Young defied all reasonable expectations and did not hit anyone with a bat. Some of their young pitchers showed some serious moxie (usually while getting hammered by opposing hitters).
Despite these positives, the Rays still have a long way to go, but the addition of Evan Longoria should help. The third baseman is said to have David Wright potential, and is the early favorite for Rookie of the Year. The Rays traded Delmon Young (who was actually pretty terrible for a corner outfielder last year) for Matt Garza of the Twins. While Garza may be a somewhat lesser prospect, one outfielder needed to go and Young was the clear choice. Several potential star pitchers await their chance to shine. The Rays might just be a team to contend with… in a couple years (at least for Toronto).
Rays Questions:
- Will Pena repeat his 2007 performance? (Not bloody likely)
- Will Upton continue to perform at this level? (More bloody likely)
- Can Kazmir develop into a legit ace? (Sure, now that the Mets have Santana, maybe their fans will finally ease up on the Kazmir voodoo dolls)
- Will Carl Crawford ever make the jump into the star everyone already thinks he is? (I'm going with no)
- Will Evan Longoria ever be more famous than Eva Longoria? (NO!)
- Will Evan Longoria at least win Rookie of the Year? (YES!)
- Will the Rays finally fight their way out of the AL East cellar? (Now that they have abandoned the Devil, all things are possible)
Baltimore Orioles
2007 Finish: 69-93, 4th
David’s 2008 Prediction: 59-103 (-10) 5th
Josh’s Analysis:
When the topic of the worst franchise in all of sports comes up, as it tends to, I always argue strenuously for the Baltimore Orioles. Considering their impressive history and beautiful ballpark, this is quite the accusation. Obviously, you must take into account the vast difficulties inherent in playing in the AL East, however the Orioles fans have to deal with something the Jays and Rays just don't; the complete and utter lack of hope. Hope is at the core of everything that makes baseball great. In the case of the Orioles, hope is brutally strangled by Peter Angelos on a yearly basis. Angelos is the worst owner in sports (sorry James Dolan…so close). Since I am only devoting a few paragraphs to each team, I don't have the necessary space to properly rant about Peter the Cruel. Yankee fans have been subjected to George Steinbrenner’s meddling for a quarter century. But say what you will about George, he desperately wanted to win and he always did his best to field what he thought was a championship caliber team. That is an owner’s job (besides exploiting everything for profit, that is). An objective look at every move that Angelos and the Orioles’ front office has made in the last twelve years would convince any rational thinker that Angelos has been trying to do the exact opposite.
Despite all expectations, the Orioles seem to have finally made the decision to stop trying to win 70-75 games. It's rebuilding time! I believe that you are either trying to win a championship, rebuilding, or just robbing your fans. It's all part of the whole hope thing. Fans either need hope for the future, or hope right now. Maybe the Orioles finally got the memo.
I suppose I should still mention some substantive things about this likely hundred-loss team. Nick Markakis has a real shot at being one of the best right fielders in baseball over the next decade or so. The Bedard trade was very well done, even if Adam Jones is the only real acquisition; he is a very highly rated prospect. The O’s managed to get the Mariners to throw in an extra prospect when they had already committed to moving Bedard and the M’s were the only serious bidder. The Tejada dump occurred just before the Mitchell Report was released (good freaking timing). They did acquire a nice poo-poo platter of decent guys for him; however, in true Angelos fashion every upside has a bigger downside. The O’s waited one year too long to trade Tejada and were forced to accept thirty cents on the dollar for one of the game’s best shortstops. If the Orioles are committed to rebuilding, they must trade Brian Roberts while he has value. I hear that he is an Angelos favorite, and that might be holding things up. I believe Joe DiMaggio once said "I'd like to thank the good Lord for not making me an Orioles fan" (or something to that effect).
Orioles Questions:
- Will the Orioles lose 100 games? (Quite likely)
- Will the O's finally trade Roberts (and perhaps Mora) to complete their rebuilding effort? (Seems a bit too rational, so no)
- Will I ever watch an Orioles game when they aren't playing the Yankees or Red Sox? (Is there coercion involved? Maybe some money changing hands?)
- Does hope spring eternal? (Maybe next year?)
1 comment:
You do realize that you cannot post an AL East preview on 2/19 and a week later still not post anything about any other divisions. What if we are not all fans of the AL East?
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