AL Central Preview

Sorry about the delay, real life got in the way for a few days, but I'm back, buckled down and ready to give you your American League Central preview. Once again, teams are listed in the order I think they will finish and David's predictions (which are always wrong) precede my in depth, expertise and always correct analysis:

AL CENTRAL

Detroit Tigers
2007 Finish: 88-74, 2nd
David’s 2008 Prediction: 96-66 (+8) 1st

Josh’s Analysis:
General Manager Dave Dombrowski gets my award for best GM in baseball. He is willing to sacrifice the future for now, a dangerous approach for a GM if it doesn’t work. Detroit traded away eight highly rated prospects this winter in two trades that essentially bankrupted their minor league talent pool. While many people favor a balance, I applaud Dombrowski for going out on a limb to give the fans what they want; a team that can compete today! It’s easy to fall into the trap of being safe and always planning for next year… and when next year never happens, it’s because the talent didn’t develop as planned. Fans appreciate a gamble… so long as the payoff can be immediate. Detroit probably had the best all around off season in the majors. They overhauled the left side of their infield with the addition of Shortstop Edgar Renteria and Slugging Third Baseman Miguel Cabrera. They are both coming off terrific seasons in the National League, and Detroit hopes that it will translate to the AL. Renteria gives Detroit a major upgrade at short on both sides of the ball. Cabrera has often been accused of taking a nonchalant approach to defense, but I think now that he is playing for no-nonsense Jim Leyland on a competitive team you will see a major change in his attitude.

The Tigers’ pitching is a big question mark. Zumaya is out till midseason. Bonderman and Rogers are both coming off disappointing, injury-shortened campaigns. Detroit is gambling that Willis will regain his 2005 (or even his 2006) form. They resigned closer Todd Jones who turns forty during the first month of the season. Detroit's offense is one of the two best in the majors. Gary Sheffield should provide power and consistency if he stays healthy all season. Their lineup boasts Pudge, Magglio, Granderson and now Cabrera and Renteria. Top to bottom, this lineup will terrify opposing pitchers all year. Overall, if the Tigers pitchers can turn in even an average showing, their lineup should make them the team to beat in the Central.

Tigers Questions:

1. How many cameramen will Kenny Rogers punch in 2008? (The over/under is 3)
2. Will Bonderman figure out how to get that pesky ERA under 4.00? (Survey says: No)
3. Will a forty-three year old Rogers win fifteen games? (Define “win”)
4. Will the Tigers score at least 900 runs? (Money in the bank)
5. Will the Tigers win the Central? (By at least four games)
6. Will the Tigers win the pennant? (Nope, hitting will get you to October, but you need pitching… and the ability to field a bunt… to win it all)

Cleveland Indians
2007 Finish: 96-66, 1st, Lost to BOS in ALCS
David’s 2008 Prediction: 89-73 (-7) 2nd

Josh’s Analysis:
The Indians surprised everyone last season with their run to the ALCS, coming within one game of the World Series (three times). The Indians spent the off season desperately trying to lock up Sabathia long term, but the twenty-seven year old seems determined to test the free agency waters in 2009. Sabathia is likely to be the hot commodity next winter, but for now he will still anchor a surprisingly strong rotation in Cleveland. The Indians look like they will be suffering from an embarrassment of riches when it comes to starting pitchers this year. Carmona was positively stunning in his first full season as a starter, and if he can continue to deliver, the Indians will have a formidable one-two punch at the top. Paul Byrd enters his third and most likely last, season with the Tribe. The thirty-seven year old junkballer won a respectable fifteen games last year. Westbrook spent nearly two months on the DL with an abdominal strain and turned in a forgettable 6-9, 4.32 season, but the Indians are optimistic that he can be a viable number four guy this year. Highly rated prospects Laffey and Sowers will compete with Lee for the fifth spot, with Lee the early favorite for the job.

Full time DH Travis Hafner had an abysmal showing in 2007 slugging two hundred points below his improbable 2006 campaign that had everyone foaming at the mouth. Most people in baseball are shrugging off last season and saying that the real Hafner will be back this season, but that remains to be seen. Peralta is a serviceable shortstop but a lousy hitter who strikes out more than twice as often as he walks. The Indians let Lofton leave, and in doing so they lost their catalyst at the top of the lineup. The only .300 hitter the Indians had last year was backstop Victor Martinez and the Tribe can look for more of the same this year. Overall the Indians last year were far better than the sum of their parts and that kind of luck rarely translates year to year. Besides, Joe Borowski, the worst closer in baseball, still has “the full faith” of Manager of the Year Eric Wedge. The fact that Borowski had 53 save opportunities is testament to the number of close games the Indians played and that further reinforces my belief that the Indians were more lucky than anything else last season.

Indians Questions:

1. Will Joe Borowski become an elite closer? (Everyone should have a good belly laugh once a day, this one’s on me)
2. Will Hafner bounce back from his horrid 2007? (This is the key to the Indians season, so they better hope so)
3. Will Sabathia and Carmona perform at the levels they did in 2007? (Sabathia might, he’s in a contract year; Carmona is a mystery, but if he doesn’t, the Tribe has no shot)
4. Was 2007 an off year for Grady Sizemore at the beginning of a great career, or were we far too excited after his great 2006? (Odds are he bounces back)
5. Will Westbrook keep his job all season? (Look for Westbrook in the bullpen or as part of a deadline trade, either way, he will not start a game past August 1 for the Indians)
6. Will the Indians make the postseason? (If everything falls into place for them… I hope Shapiro ordered the midges!)

Chicago White Sox
2007 Finish: 72-90, 4th
David’s 2008 Prediction: 79-83 (+7) 3rd

Josh’s Analysis:
The White Sox had all sorts of problems last season; it’s hard to know where to begin. They probably had the worst pitching staff in the majors. Danks had a pathetic rookie outing putting up a 6-13 with a 5.50 ERA, and he wasn’t even the worst on the staff! Contreras went 10-17 with a 5.57 ERA. The lone bright spot for the Sox came in April with Mark Buehrle’s no-hitter.

Just about everything went wrong for Chicago in 2007 and that kind of bad luck is hard to duplicate. Here’s the amazing thing though; as bad as their pitching was, the real problem was their hitting. Yes, you read that right; the White Sox were one of only three teams in the majors, and the only one from the American League to score fewer than 700 runs (Nationals – 673, Giants – 683). Not one player on the team came within twenty points of hitting .300. While GM Kenny Williams missed out on opportunities to pick up Torri Hunter and Miguel Cabrera, the acquisitions of Nick Swisher in center and Orlando Cabrera at short should help. Honestly, just about anyone would have been an improvement over the woeful Juan Uribe. Cuban sensation Alexei Ramirez is expected to be the opening day second baseman and is considered to be a legitimate contender for Rookie of the Year. Thome and Konerko both underperformed last year and should have better showings this season. Luckily for Chicago they share a division with the Royals and the suddenly pathetic Twins. All in all Kenny Williams has taken a page from the Peter Angelos book on running a team; he bankrupted his team’s future for a handful of cosmetic stopgaps when his team has zero chance of competing this season.

White Sox Questions:

1. Will any of the White Sox starting pitchers finish with records over .500? (I suppose one of them might get lucky)
2. Will anyone on the team hit .300? (Konerko or Dye has an outside shot)
3. …or reach 100 RBIs? (See, the problem with RBI’s is that someone usually needs to get on base in front of you!)
4. How long will it take Ozzie Guillen to say something stupid to the press? (When’s opening day?)
5. Will the White Sox make the playoffs? (How many languages can I say no in? No. Nyet. Non. Nein. いいえ. 아니다. 不. Não. αριθ. לא)

Kansas City Royals
2007 Finish: 69-93, 5th
David’s 2008 Prediction: 71-91 (+2) 4th

Josh’s Analysis:
Because the Royals are the definition of irrelevant, I'm not feeling particularly inspired at the moment. If they refuse to make real attempts at competence, why should I have to buckle down for two paragraphs? I no longer think the Royals have an awful GM. He certainly made every effort to improve his team on the free agent market. Therein lies the problem though. There is approximately no chance that the Royals will contend in the next two years so why the hell would you go out and overpay an above average corner outfielder that won’t even be there if and when the Royals are ever good again?!

While I certainly understand the fact that the Royals have to overpay for free agents (essentially a Kansas City tax levied because of how little players want to play for a perennial loser in a boring city) I don’t see why GMs don’t find another path. Hell, take the cash you’re saving by having one of the league’s lowest payrolls and invest in a high yield money market account! When you’ve stocked up enough minor league talent and are actually good again, maybe you’ll be able to afford to compete with the big boys. I can only assume the Rays have been doing this for years (because nothing else makes sense with them). Unless the Royals opt for sacrificing to Jobu under the noses of the KC media contingent (Mark Teahen’s parents; one camera, one tape recorder), they aren’t winning 75 games. I’m not predicting good things.

Royals Questions:

1. Will Gil Meche get that ERA under 4.00 again? (If he does, the Royals should trade him and use the money they save to take everyone on the team out for ice cream)
2. How many Tony Pena stories will sports fans be subjected to when the Yankees play the Royals? (The over/under is 12)
3. Will the Royals finish above .500? (Will Mike Huckabee be the Republican candidate for President?)
4. Does anyone care enough about the AL Central that they are still reading the Royals questions?? (I’m going with no, feel free to tell me I’m wrong in a comment)

Minnesota Twins
2007 Finish: 79-83, 3rd
David’s 2008 Prediction: 66-96 (-13) 5th

Josh’s Analysis:
Twins neophyte GM Bill Smith sat down at a veritable high stakes poker game this off-season. He was dealt just about the fairest hand a first time GM could ask for; a pair of established stars (Mauer and Morneau), a team that was one or two good moves from contention, and the biggest chip at the table (Santana). Smith started out well enough, opting to gamble on controversy magnet Delmon Young. He got a relatively good price for Young from a Tampa Bay team that was desperate to move the former first overall draft pick. He wisely let Torrii hunter seek greener pastures and the Angels obliged by giving him a psychotic contract. But as Kenny Rogers (no, not that one, the other one) says; “You gotta know when to hold ‘em, know when to fold ‘em, know when to walk away… know when to run”.

Smith overplayed his hand on the Santana deal. He forgot the cardinal rule of savvy GM’s; you don’t trade players, you trade contracts. He had one of the game’s best players, but one of the league’s worst contracts. An expiring deal with a no-trade clause that he’d waive for no less than a six year, 120 million dollar extension. Smith was convinced he could pull off a monster haul for Santana, asking for players such as Reyes, Joba, Hughes, Lester and Buchholz during negotiations with the Mets, Yanks and Sox. When the smoke cleared Smith had passed up the best offer he was going to get (Hughes, Melky and a second-tier prospect) and had traded the best pitcher in the game for a handful of nobodies that didn’t even include a can’t-miss prospect. Congratulations Bill, you set the world record for least amount of time between becoming GM and making a trade so bad it was a fire-able offense. Guinness will be contacting you shortly.

The Twins do have a few things going for them this year. Francisco Liriano, the pitcher with the most dominating stuff since the artist-formerly-known-as-Pedro toed the mound, is returning from Tommy John surgery. A healthy Liriano could potentially be the best pitcher in the game. The Twins have a ton of young pitching, but none of them have a particularly high ceiling. I don't like Delmon Young much, he’s a clubhouse cancer and he never walks, but some people think he'll be good and the price was right. Mauer and Morneau should be around for a while, but they won’t be sniffing the playoffs any time soon.

Twins Questions:

1. Will Liriano be dominating from day one? (He'll probably take his lumps early on, but look for the old Liriano by June)
2. Will anyone the Twins got from the Mets be a star? (With a little luck, one of them might even make the opening day roster!)
3. Will Mauer stay healthy all season? (Yea… I’m not too optimistic on this one)
4. Will the Twins offense miss Nick Punto if he doesn't win the starting job? (Not with Adam Everett poised to take his place… the Twinkies went from the worst full time offensive player in the sport to the second worst… baby steps I suppose)
5. Will Delmon Young settle in and be a model citizen? (Sure! He'll also draw a hundred walks, lead the Twins to October… and oh, grow wings!)