NL Central Preview

With just over five days until the A's and Sox open up the 2008 baseball season in Japan, we bring you our second to last preview: the NL Central. I know, I'm getting a little misty myself. The NL Central, with its six lousy teams shocked many people by peeling off three straight NL pennants from 2004-2006 after not sending a single team to the Fall Classic since its inception in 1995. Let's get to it:

NL CENTRAL

Chicago Cubs
2007 Finish: 85-77, 1st, Lost to ARI in NLDS
David’s 2008 Prediction: 88-74 (+3) 2nd

Josh’s Analysis:
Good things happen to those who finally realize that you can’t build a team around two pitchers who spend so much time on the disabled list that they get their mail there. The Cubs gave up on Kerry Wood and Mark Prior and started spending money and (excuse the pun) it paid off. Between Soriano, Ramirez, Lilly, Marquis, Zambrano and now Fukudome, the Cubbies have committed nearly four hundred million dollars over the last two seasons. Amazingly, the Cubs’ pitching staff was one of the best in the league. They led baseball with 1,211 strikeouts and were second in the NL with a 4.04 ERA. When ace Carlos Zambrano isn’t mixing it up with his catcher in the dugout he is one of the best in the business. Despite his history of injury, Ted Lilly was a legitimate number two guy last season. Hill and Marquis will be joined by former closer Ryan Dempster to fill out the Cubs rotation. Chicago enters the season with no one assigned to the closer role, but Bob Howry, Carlos Marmol and none other than Kerry Wood will compete for the job. Wood is considered to be the frontrunner for the position (of course, as I write this, the Cubs announced the Wood has back spasms and is day to day, shocking... nobody).

Japanese sensation Kosuke Fukudome brings his bat and speed to right field for the Cubs. Fukudome is coming off shoulder surgery in August and I’m always wary of Japanese imports. Soriano got off to a slow start last year, but by season’s end he was showing the nation why the Cubs gave him all those bags of cash. He broke his middle finger during spring training, and one wonders what he was using it for at the time, but he should be fine in time for opening day. Derek Lee and Aramis Ramirez join Soriano in anchoring a slightly above average lineup. Fiery Lou Piniella will enter his second season as Cubs manager with two goals: winning consecutive division titles for the first time in club history, and ending the Cubs’ century-long pursuit of that elusive world championship.

Cubs Questions:

1. Will Kerry Wood… you know what; you’ve heard all the Wood questions and the answers never change. (In other words… NO!)
2. Will the Cubs’ rotation continue to be among the best in the league? (Should be, but as I’ve said before… predicting pitching success is a crapshoot)
3. Will Fukudome’s performance justify the contract he was given? (Who knows, but I think getting to hear announcers try to pronounce his name for four years makes him worth the money)
4. How many times will Sweet Lou be ejected in 2008? (The over/under is 6 and I’m taking the over)
5. Will the Cubs finally win the World Series? (Outlook not so good)
6. … How about the pennant? (Don’t count on it)
   
   
   

Milwaukee Brewers
2007 Finish: 83-79, 2nd
David’s 2008 Prediction: 90-72 (+7) 1st

Josh’s Analysis:
Just because the end of the Brewers’ season didn’t match the scale of the Mets’ September collapse, doesn’t mean it wasn’t disappointing. The Brewers were set to claim their first playoff appearance in a quarter century before the bottom fell out. The Brew-Crew were tied with the Cubbies for first place with a mere ten games to play, but manager Ned Yost came unwound, getting ejected in consecutive games down the stretch as Milwaukee split their last ten games and finished two games back in baseball’s weakest division. Still, there was plenty of good in the Brewers’ 2007 campaign. Ryan Braun was the NL Rookie of the Year despite not being called up till the last week of May, and it was a no-brainer. He broke Mark McGwire’s twenty year old record for slugging percentage by a rookie with an astounding .634. His plate discipline needs work; he doesn’t walk and he strikes out a lot. He’s a below average defender at the hot corner and the Brewers would be better served by moving him to a corner outfield spot. Still, Braun is a mammoth threat at the plate and he has some of the best protection in baseball in Prince Fielder. Speaking of Prince Fielder, his fifty home run showing in his sophomore season had him coming in third in the NL MVP voting. So the Brewers rewarded their elite first baseman with a whopping 255,000 dollar raise, and Prince let the world know how unhappy he was about that.

Looking forward to 2008, Brewers fans have a lot to be excited about. Ace Ben Sheets, who was injured for a large portion of 2007, is expected to be at full strength and anchor an above average rotation that features young upstart Yovani Gallardo. Gallardo filled in nicely for Sheets when he went down and should be a very good number two man. Milwaukee lost both their closer (Francisco Cordero) and premiere setup man (Scott Linebrink) to free agency. GM Doug Melvin responded by picking up Eric Gagne (he of the absolutely horrid showing in Boston last year) and David Riske. Perhaps Gagne’s return to the National League will help him recover some of his prior magic, but I wouldn’t count on it. Other free agent acquisitions include center fielder Mike Cameron (who will have to miss the first 25 games of the season due to suspension) and backstop Jason Kendall. Kendall is a below average hitter and defender (he only threw out 15% of would-be base stealers in 2007) but he has a leadership quality that Melvin hopes will help to guide along their young staff.

Brewers Questions:

1. Will Ben Sheets finally get back to two hundred innings? (Yet another question recycled from 2007, 2006 and 2005)
2. Will Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder continue to obliterate opposing pitching? (Their stocks should both be sound investments for many years)
3. Will Gagne have a bounce back year? (Hell, if he keeps his ERA under five he should be a lock for comeback player of the year)
4. Will the Brewers return to the postseason for the first time since 1982? (They’ve got a great shot, but I still say the Cubs are the favorites in the Central)

Cincinnati Reds
2007 Finish: 72-90, 5th
David’s 2008 Prediction: 75-87 (+3) 3rd

Josh’s Analysis:
The Cincinnati Reds had been the quintessential example of false hope for most of the decade. They would storm out of the gate and fool people into thinking they were a true contender for a few months before completely tanking in the second half. In 2007 the Reds abandoned the false hope campaign, opting instead for a first half tanking that resulted in the mid-season firing of manager Jerry Narron. Owner Bob Castellini decided to show fans his dedication to winning now by hiring Dusty Baker as the new manager over the winter. Dusty Baker's last managerial stint (with the Cubs in 2006) ended with his very public firing after finishing dead last in the six-team division. But he claims he is reinvigorated after a year in the booth. There isn’t much about the Reds that makes you confident that they can be truly significant in 2008. While Baker may indeed be an improvement over Narron and his interim replacement (Pete Mackanin), he won’t be enough to push the Reds into serious contention.

Still, there are a handful of bright spots for a team that last played significant October ball when they won it all in 1990. Despite anchoring staff that sported the National League’s worst ERA in 2007 (4.94), Aaron Harang showed he has legitimate ace potential. Harang has pitched back to back seasons with at least 230 innings pitched, 215 strikeouts, fewer than 60 walks allowed and sub-4.00 ERA. He is a workhorse on an otherwise lousy staff. After a resurgent 2006 that had Red Sox fans crying in their chowdah, Bronson Arroyo returned to his former self in 2007, showing significant regression in every measurable category. Still, many Cincinnati faithful (and I’m assured that there are still a handful of them) point to his poor run support last season in explaining away his dismal win/loss record (9-15), and I say whatever helps them sleep at night. Picking up free agent Francisco Cordero should help solidify their bullpen.

On the offensive side of the ball, the Reds are a mess. The crown jewel of the organization is left fielder Adam Dunn. Four straight years of at least forty homeruns is certainly nothing to sneeze at, but neither is averaging 182 strikeouts a season. Dunn is the ultimate prototype for the "3 true outcome" player: no need to get those silly fielders involved in most of his at bats. His defense is also lousy and getting worse. I would imagine Dunn will be looking for a DH job in the American League when he becomes a free agent this winter. Thirty-eight year old Ken Griffey Jr. had a nice enough 2007, playing 144 games and reaching 500 at-bats for the first time since his inaugural season in Cincinnati in 2000. Still, counting on Griffey at this point in his career would be a lot like counting on a roulette wheel. Despite what Castellini and GM Wayne Krivsky would have you believe, this is not going to be the year that the Reds return to the postseason.

Reds Questions:

1. Will Adam Dunn lead the league in strikeouts? (Not a forgone conclusion with Ryan Howard in the equation)
2. Will Harang reach 200 innings for a fourth straight year? (As long as he stays healthy, this one should be a cinch)
3. Will Scott Hatteberg build on his impressive 2007 and hit .300 again? (He’s shown improvement two years running and was on pace for a career year in AVG, OBP and SLG but at age 38, it might be too late for him)
4. Will Brandon Phillips have another 30/30 season? (He barely got there in his second full season with Cincy so I’m going with no)
5. Will Griffey get to 600 homeruns? (Hmmm… he needs seven more… he’d have to stay healthy for about two weeks… this is a tough one, but I’ll go with yes)
6. Will the Reds regret keeping future star Jay Bruce and the up and coming Joey Votto in the minors in order to play retreads? (If they miss the playoffs by a couple games, this will go down as a monumentally brainless, yet predictable, choice)
7. Will the Reds make the playoffs? (No, but watch out for them in the future)
   
   
   

Houston Astros
2007 Finish: 73-89, 4th
David’s 2008 Prediction: 71-91 (-2) 4th

Josh’s Analysis:
As I argue in my Baltimore preview, a team is either trying to win a championship, is rebuilding, or is just plain robbing their fans. Welcome to Houston, prepare to be robbed. It is always difficult to admit that merely two years removed from a pennant-winning season, you are in full-scale rebuilding mode, but that is where Houston needs to be right now. They simply do not have enough pieces to compete this season, and they have plenty of chips to trade in a full-blown rebuilding effort. Firing both the GM (Tim Purpura) and manager (Phil Garner) is a step in the right direction; now its time to fully commit to rebuilding.

The Astros have seen two of their “Killer Bee’s” retire in the last two seasons, leaving first baseman Lance Berkman and ace Roy Oswalt as the key holdovers from their 2005 run. Berkman had a perfectly acceptable 2007, but he set new career lows in AVG, OBP and SLG. It is certainly possible that this was just an off season, but the ‘stros would be wise to move him ASAP before there is a chance for the thirty-two year old to prove that he has begun to decline for good and his value crashes. Undisputed ace Roy Oswalt would command a king’s ransom on the trade market, but his complete no-trade clause complicates matters for the organization. The rest of Houston’s rotation is a complete mess. Brandon Backe showed glimmers of excellence in September after returning from Tommy John surgery and it remains to be seen if he can sustain that over a full season. Wandy Rodriguez and Woody Williams were both abysmal and I predict more of the same in 2008. The acquisition of last year’s surprise phenom closer Jose Valverde is expected to shore up a bullpen that has been lacking since Brad Lidge’s psyche was essentially murdered by Albert Pujols in 2005. A quick look at Valverde’s career seems to indicate that the soon-to-be-twenty-nine-year-old only performs well in odd numbered years (sub-2.70 ERA in 03, 05 and 07… greater than 4.20 ERA in 04 and 06). For Houston’s sake, lets hope that is just a coincidence.

Looking forward to the 2008 campaign, I see very little to be excited about. Miguel Tejada is an upgrade of epic proportions at short over the laughable Adam Everett. Tejada had a pretty lousy year by his own standards in 2007 and I would look for him to return to form in 2008. Unfortunately for Houston, Tejada is famously intolerant of teams that are not immediate contenders and by the time Houston is significant again, Tejada will be past his prime. He is already a below average fielder and Houston may be better off moving him to the hot corner. Carlos Lee did a nice job of justifying the contract he was given following the 2006 season (you know, kinda), and I see no reason to think that will change. When the trade deadline rolls around and the Astros are already out of contention, I would look for new GM Ed Wade to make some moves toward some serious rebuilding (ah, but will I find it?).

Astros Questions:

1. Will Roy Oswalt finally win that Cy Young? (Unlikely, with Santana in the NL now and the lack of run support making it difficult to accumulate “shiny” numbers such as Wins for the moronic voters to get excited about, it doesn’t look good)
2. Will Carlos Lee put up another 30/100? (Vote yes on proposition Lee)
3. Will the Astros’ best prospect, Hunter Pence, suffer from a sophomore slump? (That would be unfortunate, he was one of the best rookies in baseball in 2007 finishing third in RoY voting)
4. Will Ed Wade opt for a full-scale rebuilding effort? (Here’s hoping, but not expecting)
5. Will Tejada spark some sort of controversy? (As certain as death and taxes)

St. Louis Cardinals
2007 Finish: 78-84, 3rd
David’s 2008 Prediction: 70-92 (-8) 5th

Josh’s Analysis:
The 2007 Cardinals essentially defined bad luck. Their ace and perpetual Cy Young contender Chris Carpenter went down after one start and had season ending Tommy John surgery. Mark Mulder was limited to three starts and had season ending rotator cuff surgery. Yadier Molina had season ending knee surgery in September. Second baseman Adam Kennedy had season ending knee surgery in August. Center fielder Jim Edmonds was limited to only 117 games due to various injuries. Carpenter is expected to be back shortly after the All-Star break, Mulder should return to the rotation in mid-April, Molina is slated to be the opening day catcher, and Edmonds was traded away. Still, there is no telling how effective any of them will be following their surgeries. If Carpenter and Mulder can regain their previous form, the Cardinals will have a surprisingly passable rotation. Adam Wainwright did a great job of filling in for Carpenter last season in his first season as a starter. Brandon Looper, on the other hand, was at best a below average pitcher in his transition from the bullpen to the rotation. Matt Clement is expected to vie for a spot in the rotation after missing all of 2007 recovering from his shoulder surgery. In the bullpen there is no reason to believe that Jason Isringhausen won’t continue to be one of the best (ok, most servicable) closers in the game.

Discussion of the Cards’ offense begins and ends with Albert Pujols. What is there to say about Prince Albert that has not already been said? He opened his career with seven straight seasons of 30/100. He has incredible plate discipline; he doesn’t strike out and he walks plenty. Unlike most slugging first basemen, his defense is a real plus for the team. He is one of the best all around players in the game. After Pujols, the pickings are pretty slim in St. Louis. Rick Ankiel was the feel-good story of 2007 after he washed out as a pitcher and reinvented himself as an outfielder, but the shine of that story is likely to be gone in 2008. If he can produce the way he did in 2007 for a full season, he may just be a serviceable position player. But look for highly rated prospect Brian Barton to take over center if Ankiel doesn’t meet expectations early on. If everything falls into place for the Cards they could hang around until late August, but I wouldn’t count on them being a factor beyond that.

Cardinals Questions:

1. Will Chris Carpenter return to form when he rejoins the team? (Pitchers returning from Tommy John surgery are always unpredictable, but he should be good to go)
2. Will Albert Pujols post his eighth straight 30/100 season? (YES!)
3. Will Rick Ankiel put up 30 homeruns? (NO!)
4. Will Adam Kennedy crack .220 this season? (All indications seem to point to 2007 just being a fluke, he should return to full mediocre form in 2008)
5. Will LaRussa be fired this year? (Seems like a distinct possibility, recently fired GM Jocketty was his biggest supporter within the organization)

Pittsburgh Pirates
2007 Finish: 68-94, 6th
David’s 2008 Prediction: 66-96 (-2) 6th

Josh’s Analysis:
Good news for Pittsburgh fans! The Pirates are ideally poised to tie a major league record that has stood for sixty years! With one more losing season, the Pirates will match the mark for most consecutive losing seasons (Phillies: 16, 1933-1948). What’s that you say? That isn’t actually good news? Well you try finding something to be excited about in the Pirates organization! Not as easy as it sounds, is it?

I’m going to keep this preview short and sweet. The Pirates stink. Period. They do not have enough on-field talent to be competitive and no number of cosmetic alterations to the front office or coaching staff will change that fact. The Pirates are a bit of an enigma in that one would think that fifteen straight losing seasons would produce the best farm system in baseball. But that isn’t the case, the Pirates are known for trading away highly rated prospects for short-term stopgaps that do nothing to improve their chances of competing in the long or short term.

Jason Bay had his worst season yet in 2007, hitting career lows in every statistical category. Most scouts anticipate a return to form in 2008. Xavier Nady was a pleasant surprise in his first full season with Pittsburgh and it remains to be seen if he can stay consistent over time. Freddy Sanchez is likely the best all around player on the team, so look for him to be traded soon. Closer Matt Capps and “ace” Tom Gorzelanny both showed incredible promise last season. Starter Ian Snell looked like a legitimate number two man. Still, the Pirates stink. And there is no foreseeable hope in the next few seasons for them either. Poor Pirates fans.

Pirates Questions:

1. Will the Pirates tie the record for most consecutive losing seasons? (I’ll do you one better, I am guaranteeing that they not only tie the record, but surpass it in 2009)
2. Will anything good happen for the Pirates this season? (High draft position…)
3. Will neophyte manager John Russell be fired before season’s end? (6:5 against)
4. When can Pirates fans expect their team to contend again? (Its best not to focus on arbitrary things like “dates”, lets just say they should settle in for the long haul)

NL East Preview

The long awaited NL East is finally here. I know you've all been waiting for this one (we have two loyal readers at the moment and they are both Mets fans), so here it is. At this point I don't need to bother pointing out to you how wrong David always is... and yet I just did, go figure. Without further ado, your NL East:

NL EAST

New York Mets
2007 Finish: 88-74, 2nd
David’s 2008 Prediction: 102-60 (+14) 1st

Josh’s Analysis:
To say that the end of the Mets’ 2007 campaign did not go quite as planned would be an understatement indeed. While columnists and pundits tend to throw around the words "historic collapse" without much regard for the facts, this was the largest division lead squandered with seventeen games to play in history. The Mets' fall from grace was agonizing to watch; I can't even imagine what it must have been like for a Mets fan. If Minaya had chosen to stand pat this winter, he still could have made an argument that the Mets were the best in the East. However, to truly move on from the 2007 debacle, he needed to do something big.

Well, we all know that the Mets did the biggest thing possible: they traded a handful of decent (and that’s being generous) prospects for the best pitcher in baseball. While the Red Sox and Yanks weren't particularly excited about giving up prospects in addition to an historic contract, Minaya knew that this was a pivotal moment for the organization. If Santana stays healthy, he should dominate the weaker league in one of the best pitcher's ballparks (and don't forget that he gets to face pitchers now instead of designated hitters!). The contract the Mets gave Santana is certainly a reflection of his ability to dominate the league; now it remains to be seen if he can deliver

Beyond the Mets’ new southpaw, the “other New York team” is quite formidable. The rest of their rotation looks solid, though unspectacular. If Pedro can return to even his 2005 form, the Mets will have arguably the best top two they have had in thirty years. Like most teams these days, their bullpen is a big question mark, but it could very well be above average if things go well. Jose Reyes had a terrible second half last year, but should remain the best shortstop in baseball if he can return to pre All-Star break form. Delgado had an off year in 2007, but could have a bounce back year if he can manage to stay healthy. Moises Alou is out till at least May and the Mets will miss his bat early on, but Endy Chavez (whose Game 7 catch in the 2006 NLCS buys him a free pass for life with the Flushing Faithful) will be there to fill in. Lastly, let’s not forget that David Wright was the true MVP of the 2007 season. As the Mets ship was sinking, Wright fought valiantly to keep it afloat. If he can reproduce last season’s effort in 2008, he'll finally have that MVP award adorning his mantle.

Here, have some chills, my treat:

Video: Endy Chavez's leaping catch

Mets Questions:

1. Will the Mets win the NL Pennant? (They are clearly the NL's best team heading into the season, but if 2007 taught us anything, it is that they play the games for a reason)
2. Will they win 100 games? (I don’t think they will, but they are the one team in the majors with a real shot at triple digits)
3. Will John Maine be the incredible pitcher that Mets fans seem to think he already is? (Nope, but he should be a perfectly acceptable number three man, which is exactly what the Mets need him to be)
4. Will Pedro find a way to be effective? (The best pitcher in baseball history doesn’t need his old stuff to get you out)
5. Will Santana be clearing space in his trophy case for his third Cy Young? (If he stays healthy it is hard to think of who would be a better choice)
   
   
   

Philadephia Phillies
2007 Finish: 89-73, 1st, Lost to COL in NLDS
David’s 2008 Prediction: 85-77 (-4) 3rd

Josh’s Analysis:
When Jimmy Rollins announced to the world during spring training last year that the Phillies were “the team to beat” in the NL East, the general consensus was “get me a pipe of whatever he’s been smoking”. But as we all know, the deus ex machina reared its ugly head in September, ignoring what we know to be true about Hubris and allowing the heavily favored Mets to blow a seven game lead with seventeen to play. Ignoring for the moment that as a New Yorker I will generally root for the Mets, and there is certainly no love lost between myself and any team calling Philadelphia home, I was downright livid that Jimmy Rollins’ absurd and cocky prediction came to pass. While Rollins may be a superb shortstop and a very good offensive threat, his OBP is too low to convince me he is an elite player; he simply doesn’t walk. Last season’s MVP award (twist the knife, why don’t you?) was only conferred because the Mets’ epic collapse prejudiced the voters against David Wright (who hit .352 during September and was the sole Met who didn’t look like he was suddenly playing for the Bad News Bears).

The Phillies are unquestionably the best offensive team in the National League. They boast the last two NL MVP’s as well as the man who would have been last year’s MVP had he stayed healthy (Utley). Chase Utley is without a doubt the best second baseman in the majors, and the Phillies big three should send most pitchers crying home to mommy. That said however, Ryan Howard is not quite the Adonis people think he is. He broke Adam Dunn’s inauspicious record for strikeouts in a season with 199 last year, and he did it in only 144 games! He would lose a race to first base with a paraplegic, he is a fielder of Ortiz-like proportions and he is either hitting a home run or flying out. Still, he walks a ton and has impressive power so I think the Philies will take the good with the bad.

Pat Gillick had a nice little off-season for himself, giving up rather little for closer Brad Lidge and effectively swapping Aaron Rowand for Geoff Jenkins through free agency. The Phillies of 2007 were built on power hitting and passable pitching. Cole Hamels and Brett Myers are a fine one-two punch at the top, but the rest of their rotation is a complete mess and not to be trusted. Here’s a nickel’s worth of free advice for all pitchers: If your rookie year coincides with the last time the Mets won the World Series, it might be time to consider retirement! Yes, I’m talking to you Jamie Moyer!

Phillies Questions:

1. Will Brad Lidge finally overcome being manhandled by Pujols in the 2005 NLCS and become and elite closer again? (He’s had two full years of therapy, might be time to move on)
2. Will Chase Utley be the third straight Philly to win the NL MVP? (He finishes in the top three or your money back)
3. Will Jimmy Rollins say something stupid to the press? (Some people make the seemingly daunting task of predicting the future quite simple indeed)
4. Will Ryan Howard top 200 strikeouts this season? (Look on the bright side, at least he’s not hitting into double plays)
5. Will Jamie Moyer’s fastball ever cross home plate? (Might be time to start calling it something else)

Atlanta Braves
2007 Finish: 84-78, 3rd
David’s 2008 Prediction: 88-74 (+4) 2nd

Josh’s Analysis:
The 2007 Braves are a classic example of a “worst of both worlds” team (See my Toronto Blue Jays preview for definition). They were just good enough to finish a handful of games above .500, but not good enough to really threaten the Mets or Phillies. I am predicting more of the same for 2008. The Braves are an interesting case study; half of their roster is locked in and solid, and the other half is a complete mess. They could have the best three man rotation in the National League (Smoltz, Hudson and Glavine), but they have five guys competing for the final two spots. One of the men looking for a roster spot is none other than Mike Hampton; yes, he is still alive. The thirty-five year old hurler who is apparently made of fiberglass looks to pitch for the first time since mid-2005. Nobody is particularly enthusiastic about his ability to perform, but at the very least he can provide a legitimate power threat off the bench for the tomahawkers. Many scouts think that Rafael Soriano will be a reasonable closer, but if he isn’t, the Braves will be in trouble.

Having Mark Texeira’s loaner bat in the lineup for a full season will be a plus, but I still think the trade was a mistake. The Braves gave up some good prospects to get Texeira for a season and a half with little chance of resigning him when his contract is up this winter (he’s a Boras client and the Braves have a very strict table of what they are willing to spend on players). He simply didn’t make the team good enough to legitimately challenge the Phillies or Mets for a playoff spot. With a little improvement Jeff Francoeur might just be about average for a corner outfielder. Backstop Brian McCann had a disappointing showing last season after a stellar performance in his rookie campaign. The Braves are counting on it being a sophomore slump and nothing more. Replacing Andruw Jones and his .220 batting average in center field this season will be Mark Kotsay… the one center fielder in the majors who fared worse (.214 in 56 games), well done. Overall, three future first ballot hall-of-famers won’t be enough to get this mix of young talent and past-their-prime veterans into October. Maybe next year Atlanta.

Braves Questions:

1. Will Smoltz get his 3000th strikeout before May 1st? (I think 25 K’s in his first four starts is a pretty safe bet)
2. Will McCann leave his sophomore slump behind him? (The Braves sure hope so)
3. Will Glavine be good for 200 innings? (As long as Bobby Cox doesn’t bench him for sucking, he should get there)
4. Will Hudson continue to perform as well as he did in 2007, or will we see a repeat of 2006? (Trying to predict a pitcher’s performance here so lets be scientific about this: Heads: He’s good, Tails: He sucks)
5. Will Mike Hampton hold on to a starting job all season? (Vote No on proposition Hampton)
6. Is anyone else noticing that most of the Braves’ questions pertain to pitching? (And what does that tell you?)

Washington Nationals
2007 Finish: 73-89, 4th
David’s 2008 Prediction: 70-86 (-3) 4th

Josh’s Analysis:
The Minnesota Twins responded to the 2002 contraction discussions by making it to the ALCS, the Nationals (formerly the Expos) have done pretty much the opposite. The Nationals are one of only four franchises to have never won a pennant (even as the Expos). I’d like to say that things will be changing for them in the foreseeable future but alas, it looks like it will be more of the same for quite some time. Not a single one of their starting pitcher’s (and they have seven listed) has a winning record for his career, and only Tim Redding has more than two years of experience. The only truly solid part of their pitching staff is closer Chad Cordero.

On the offensive side of things there are a handful of good players sprinkled in with the mediocrity that is the rest of the team. Ryan Zimmerman is an above average hitter at the hot corner, but his numbers have been in a steady nose dive since his much ballyhooed debut as a September call-up in 2005. Just about every player on this team strikes out far too much. From Dmitri Young to Wily Mo Pena (who turned striking out into an art form) this team has absolutely no plate discipline. Lastings Milledge (one time pearl of the Mets’ farm system who has since fallen from grace) and Elijah Dukes (one time pearl of the Rays’ farm system who has since fallen from grace) join catcher Paul LoDuca as the Nat’s big off-season acquisitions. But it is doubtful that these minor changes will amount to much in terms of team wins. From top to bottom this team has no chance of competing in the NL East and will continue to be irrelevant until Jim Bowden completely cleans house (at the very least, please stop signing guys like Dmitri Young and Ronnie Belliard!).

Nationals Questions:

1. Will the Nats be last in the league in runs scored again? (I see no reason to believe otherwise)
2. Will any of their pitchers win fifteen games? (I wouldn’t put money on it)
3. Will Ryan Zimmerman finally become the premier player everyone seems to think he will be? (Its starting to look more and more like 2005 was the fluke and not the other way around, but maybe leaving the confines of hitter-hell RFK will help)
4. Will the Nats at least end up with good draft position? (Ah, the one upside to sucking so consistently)

Florida Marlins
2007 Finish: 71-91, 5th
David’s 2008 Prediction: 65-97 (-6) 5th

Josh’s Analysis:
The old adage goes: hitting wins pennants, pitching wins championships. Turns out you need some pitching en route to a pennant as well. Don’t believe me? Ask the Marlins. Like the Nationals, the woeful Marlins’ pitching staff is in shambles. Not one of their six potential starters has a career ERA under 4.80. The Marlins gave up more runs in 2007 than every single team except the Devil Rays. So what was the Marlins’ solution to this dilemma? Trade away the one pitcher they had who had ever shown a glimmer of excellence. Clearly Dontrelle Willis needed to go. After his phenomenal 2005 campaign (22-10, 2.63, 170), his numbers have been in a tailspin the past two seasons. Of course Florida also traded away their one marquee player in Miguel Cabrera. There isn’t a lot to be excited about when it comes to the Marlins. Hanley Ramirez may be the only All-Star on the team. You know what? My mother always told me that if I have nothing nice to say, I shouldn’t say anything at all. And I just can’t come up with a single good thing about the Marlins right now.

Marlins’ Questions:

1. Will the Marlins suck this season? (Yes)
2. Will the Marlins give up over 900 runs? (A real possibility, how sad is that?)
3. Should I bother coming up with any more questions? (Does anyone really care about the Marlins?)

AL West Preview

Ah, the powerhouse AL West, the four-teamed division so significant that it has produced exactly one pennant winner since the restructuring of the divisions in 1995. Since you are all on the edge of your seat waiting for the analysis, I'll let you get right to it. Just a reminder David=wrong, Josh=right. Enjoy:

AL WEST

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, California, USA, Earth, Sol, Milky Way, Virgo Supercluster...
2007 Finish: 94-68, 1st, Lost to BOS in ALDS
David’s 2008 Prediction: 95-67 (+1) 1st

Josh’s Analysis:
The Angels seem to be the class of the AL West. With the A's “rebuilding” and the Rangers just generally sucking, only Seattle is capable putting pressure on the Angels. Still, it seems unlikely that that pressure will amount to much as October rolls around. The Angels of 2007 were successful due to good starting pitching, a solid bullpen, and an average offense. Expect more of the same in 2008.

The Angels big off-season move was the signing of centerfielder Torii Hunter (formerly of the Minnesota Twins of Minneapolis AND St. Paul). As I mentioned in my Twins preview, giving Hunter ninety million dollars over five years was clinically INSANE. Hunter's reputation for putting up impressive offensive numbers and stellar defense were clearly why he was given such a… shall we say generous deal? But reasonable empirical studies show that both reputations are undeserved. Hunter's power is made essentially irrelevant by his low OBP, and his defense is slightly above average at best. While Peter Gammons seems to think that Hunter is the best human being since Mother Teresa, there is no evidence that a sunny disposition leads to more team wins (except in the case of Patron Saint of New York, Derek Jeter).

My Hunter rant aside, the Angels only real worry is injuries. Escobar, a borderline Cy Young candidate, has already had some early problems. Vlad the Impaler is always gimpy to some degree, and his style of all-out play certainly lends itself to injuries. Their rotation did perform above expectations last year, and relying on pitching consistency is a little like relying on the weatherman to be accurate. This is likely K-Rod’s last season with the Angels and he is not a happy camper after his arbitration letdown. But that may just mean he has something to prove. The 2002 Angels (they of Anaheim, but not Los Angeles) proved that all you need to do is make the playoffs and then get hot. I’m punching the Angels’ October ticket now, whether they get hot or not, is up to them.

Angels Questions:

1. Will Howie Kendrick finally make the leap to stardom? (I think his stock is a sound investment)
2. Will Vlad manage to stay healthy and productive? (The Angels should definitely use Hunter to get Vlad to DH most of the time, it would help)
3. Will the Angels pitching have a solid follow up year? (Sure, why not?)
4. Will the Angels manage to accomplish being both from Los Angeles and from Anaheim? ("Only God should be all places at once." The gospel according to Samuel L. Jackson)
5. Will I ever stop making jokes about the naming thing? (No, Sir!)

Seattle Mariners
2007 Finish: 88-74, 2nd
David’s 2008 Prediction: 89-75 (+1) 2nd

Josh’s Analysis:
The 2007 Seattle Mariners were a bit of a smoke and mirrors act. They finished six games out of a playoff spot at a very respectable 88-74 and they were in the hunt until late September. However, a closer look at their numbers will reveal that the M’s gave up nineteen more runs then they scored. According to the widely accepted formula that turns run differential into an expected win-loss record, Seattle should have finished with nine fewer wins than they did… or four games under .500. In laymen’s terms, this means that the M’s were luckier than they should have been. I’ll keep saying it: luck is not a repeatable skill.

Seattle did not choose to stand pat this winter, vigorously pursuing Erik Bedard from Baltimore. The M’s gave up a lot to get Bedard, including highly rated prospect Adam Jones. Bavasi likely could have negotiated a better deal for himself considering that Baltimore was committed to moving Bedard and Seattle was seemingly the only serious bidder. Nonetheless, Bedard is definitely a good fit for Seattle and should do quite nicely in the confines of Safeco Field. Maybe this will be the year he finally hits 200 innings. Ichiro might be overrated due to his high batting average, but his value as a center fielder is off the charts.

Adrian Beltre, who set the bar for overachieving in a contract year (He hit 48 HRs and slugged nearly two hundred points above his career average!) is finally starting to make the contract he conned Seattle into giving him look somewhat reasonable when you take his defense into account. Besides, when you put him on the same team as Richie Sexson (.205/.295/.399 100K’s, 51BB’s in 2007… no, those aren’t typos) Beltre suddenly looks like the second coming of Babe Ruth. ESPN reported false rumors that Sexson was claimed off of waivers last year by Detroit before Seattle pulled him back. I assure you that if Detroit had claimed Sexson off waivers, he would have been a Tiger as soon as Bavasi could physically have bought him a plane ticket. But look at the bright side: considering the numbers Sexson put up last season, even a below average showing in 2008 should make him a shoe-in for Comeback Player of the Year. Overall, the acquisition of Bedard, combined with the fact that Texas and Oakland should be pretty pathetic this season, means that Seattle will finish about where they did last season: second in the West and home by October third.

Mariners Questions:

1. Can Seattle make a legitimate run at the playoffs? (Sure, but it would probably involve a team-wide case of avian flu for the Angels)
2. Will Bedard become the ace people seem to think he is? (Well, the Seattle faithful have already penciled him in for 240 innings, so… probably not)
3. Will King Felix finally be crowned with a Cy Young? (He already has the best stuff in baseball, with Santana is in the NL, this might be his year)
4. Who will show up this season, Richie Sexson, or Richie Sexson’s rotting corpse? (It is not possible to perform worse than he did in 2007. I’m predicting some improvement… I know what you’re asking yourself: When will he stop with these insane predictions?!)
5. Will J.J. Putz continue to have the best name in baseball? (I don’t know of any prospects named Quincy Loquacious Douchebag, though my MVP Baseball 2005 once generated a player named Dick Smallenberg… seriously)

Oakland Athletics
2007 Finish: 76-86, 3rd
David’s 2008 Prediction: 68-94 (-8) 4th

Josh’s Analysis:
Despite what you may have read in Moneyball, Billy Beane and the Oakland A’s have not done a good job of drafting in the last half decade or so. After catching lightning in a bottle more times than you might expect in the nineties, (Giambi, Tejada, Zito, Mulder, Hudson) Beane has essentially crapped out in recent drafts, the law of large numbers coming back to bite him in the ass I suppose. The inevitable result of poor drafting is a bankrupted farm system, which means that when starters get injured (as professional athletes are wont to do) there is no one of major league caliber to replace them. With no reasonable shot at making a run at October this season, Beane did the smart thing and opted for a legitimate rebuilding job. Having wisely let Giambi and Tejada seek greener pastures already this decade, Beane decided to commit to Eric Chavez as the face of the franchise. Boy was that a mistake. Chavez’ numbers have been in a steady decline over the last six years in nearly every measurable category.

Dan Haren was incredibly lucky last year, with a large percentage of balls put into play against him being caught. By now you should be able to say it with me: luck is not a repeatable skill! Beane capitalized on Haren’s lucky season by trading him when his stock was highest. One could argue he waited a little too long to trade Swisher, but the A’s got a nice mix of prospects back for the pair. All that’s left is for Beane to trade Blanton, Street and the Oakland Coliseum to finish the job. Rich Harden may never stay healthy enough to become the pitcher that everyone thinks he will be, but with the dawn of each season comes new hope, so A’s fans, keep your fingers crossed. Jack Cust was often billed as a natural DH when he was coming up with the Rockies in 2002. Congratulations Jack, you’ve achieved your destiny. By and large, the A’s are a bit tricky to predict. They were very unlucky last season, with injuries decimating their roster early on. The A’s should be healthier this season and their young players are a year older; they may just be good enough to outperform the Rangers.

Athletics Questions:

1. Will Bobby Crosby finally win that MVP that Gammons predicted two years ago? (When Gammons is in a coma one day, I will still be making fun of him for that one)
2. Will the A’s finish their fire sale and trade Blanton and Street? (We’re talking about one of the few rational GM’s in baseball, so yes)
3. Should we bet on Rich Harden’s health? (The same way that guy at 7-11 is betting on scratch-offs)
4. Will Eric Chavez have a bounce back year? (In the interest of protecting the environment, this question has been recycled from 2007… and 2006, 2005, 2004…)
5. Will the A’s be competitive again by 2010? (In Beane we trust…)
6. Will Billy Beane, author extraordinaire, finally get fair credit for writing Moneyball from baseball scouts? (Hey, Joe Morgan… HE DIDN’T WRITE THE DAMN BOOK!)

Texas Rangers
2007 Finish: 75-87, 4th
David’s 2008 Prediction: 74-88 (-1) 3rd

Josh’s Analysis:
One might think it odd that on the night the Red Sox clinched the World Series in Colorado, the owner of a last place team was popping proverbial champagne corks 888 miles away. But that was exactly what Tom Hicks, owner of the downtrodden Texas Rangers, was probably doing on the evening of October 29th last year. A-Rod’s decision to opt out of the final three years of his contract saved the Rangers – who had agreed to pick up roughly $7 million a season as part of his trade to the Yankees – a fortune. Still, when you’re a last place team and your only significant off-season acquisition is $21.3 million dollars in cash, it is hard to predict good things.

The 2007 Rangers were horrid; I don’t even know where to begin. Their “ace” went 10-14 with a 5.16 ERA, and they are counting on Vincente Padilla, a pitcher with a career ERA over four, to have a “bounce-back” year. They don’t even have a pitcher assigned to close going into the season. They were smart to trade Texeira to the braves at the deadline, but they made a mistake by resigning Michael Young. Young, a fan favorite, is a natural second baseman playing shortstop (and believe me, it shows) whose offensive numbers are inflated by virtue of playing in one of the best hitter’s parks in the majors.

One upside to the fact that Texas has yet to finish better than third this decade is that they have an excellent farm system (which isn’t true of all lousy organizations). Backstop Jarrod Saltamacchia is expected to take the starting job from Gerald Laird (much to the chagrin of baseball announcers everywhere, I'm sure). But if he doesn’t perform up to expectations quickly, he may have to step aside for Taylor Teagarden, a highly rated prospect who hails from the Lonestar State. Contrary to what their state motto might say, this is definitely the year to mess with Texas.

Rangers Questions:

1. Does anyone care enough about the Rangers to still be reading this? (Doubtful)
2. Yea, I gotta be honest, I’ve got nothing... Stay tuned for the NL East over the weekend.

Farewell Favre

So Brett Favre is finally calling it quits. Sixteen seasons as the Green Bay Packers starting Quarterback was enough for the tough-as-nails gunslinger from Southern Mississippi. For better or worse he holds just about every record a quarterback could hold. In 2007 he took hold of Dan Marino’s record for career touchdowns thrown (442), but he also claimed George Blanda’s less than hallowed record for picks thrown (288). He has the most career passing yards in history (61,655) and as you might expect he holds the record for pass attempts (8,758), pass completions (5,377), wins by a starting quarterback (160) and most consecutive starts by a man under center (253 regular season starts). He also holds the record for most blue jeans commercials aired during an NFL season (758,231) and was voted the most rugged-looking, stubble-wearing, cleft-chin-having quarterback by just about every woman who watched a Packers game with their husband/boyfriend/father/brother over the last fifteen years.

Favre was a ton of fun to watch as a football fan. He was practically impossible to hate. As a 49ers fan, the Packers of the mid-nineties were the enemy. I still remember the wildcard playoff game at 3COM Park in January of 1999 when Favre led an 89 yard, two minute touchdown drive against the Niners which put the Pack up 27-23 with under a minute to go. Now true, the Niners eventually won the game on Young’s pass to TO as time expired, but even after it looked like my precious Niners would go down to the Pack in the postseason for a fourth consecutive year, I couldn’t find it in me to hate Favre. He’s too classy, too nice. He has too much fun playing the game. Even his admitted addiction to Vicodin during the best season of his career (1995: 38TD, 13INT, 4,413Yds, 63% Completion), a season that netted him the first of three straight MVP awards, wasn’t enough to make people dislike Favre. He led the Packers to two straight Super Bowls in the nineties, winning Super Bowl XXXI against the Patriots in 1997.

Fellow Official Scorer Josh and I have a bit of a motto. We call it the Koufax/Ryan Corollary; Better to retire after a short career of sustained excellence (Koufax) than continue to play past your prime to the detriment of your team simply to compile stats (Ryan). Favre’s gunslinging, fun-loving approach to playing made him a fan favorite and a joy to watch, he was an elite quarterback and a team leader, sure… but he doesn’t approach the title of greatest. He’s not in the top five. Favre has my deepest admiration and respect, and three straight MVP’s, two Super Bowl appearances and all the records he holds certainly put him in the conversation, but it doesn’t get him home. Favre had four seasons (including consecutive seasons in 05-06) where he did not throw more touchdowns than picks. He never cracked a one hundred quarterback rating (99.5 in 1995 was his closest). He had five seasons with a rating under eighty. Favre’s resurgence in 2007 was as unexpected as it was enjoyable to watch… but he isn’t in the top five; maybe he cracks the top ten. When it comes right down to it, Favre is a stats compiler (See: Hoffman, Trevor; Rose, Pete; Ryan, Nolan) he didn’t throw touchdowns better than anyone in the game, he just threw them for a longer period of time.

There is a competitor in Favre that couldn’t bear to retire following the two abysmal seasons he had in 2005 and 2006. I imagine that Favre hates the fact that the last thing he did as a professional football player was throwing a season-ending pick at Lambeau Field in overtime of the NFC Championship Game. It must be eating him up inside. But short of a Super Bowl appearance in 2008, it was as close as he will come to ending his career on top of his game.

With Favre’s decision to retire, the NFL is losing one of its iconic players. A true class act, and an ultimate competitor, he truly enjoyed playing the game. We don’t know what the future holds for Brett Favre, but one thing is certain; he’ll enjoy his retirement in comfort and heartburn free.

AL Central Preview

Sorry about the delay, real life got in the way for a few days, but I'm back, buckled down and ready to give you your American League Central preview. Once again, teams are listed in the order I think they will finish and David's predictions (which are always wrong) precede my in depth, expertise and always correct analysis:

AL CENTRAL

Detroit Tigers
2007 Finish: 88-74, 2nd
David’s 2008 Prediction: 96-66 (+8) 1st

Josh’s Analysis:
General Manager Dave Dombrowski gets my award for best GM in baseball. He is willing to sacrifice the future for now, a dangerous approach for a GM if it doesn’t work. Detroit traded away eight highly rated prospects this winter in two trades that essentially bankrupted their minor league talent pool. While many people favor a balance, I applaud Dombrowski for going out on a limb to give the fans what they want; a team that can compete today! It’s easy to fall into the trap of being safe and always planning for next year… and when next year never happens, it’s because the talent didn’t develop as planned. Fans appreciate a gamble… so long as the payoff can be immediate. Detroit probably had the best all around off season in the majors. They overhauled the left side of their infield with the addition of Shortstop Edgar Renteria and Slugging Third Baseman Miguel Cabrera. They are both coming off terrific seasons in the National League, and Detroit hopes that it will translate to the AL. Renteria gives Detroit a major upgrade at short on both sides of the ball. Cabrera has often been accused of taking a nonchalant approach to defense, but I think now that he is playing for no-nonsense Jim Leyland on a competitive team you will see a major change in his attitude.

The Tigers’ pitching is a big question mark. Zumaya is out till midseason. Bonderman and Rogers are both coming off disappointing, injury-shortened campaigns. Detroit is gambling that Willis will regain his 2005 (or even his 2006) form. They resigned closer Todd Jones who turns forty during the first month of the season. Detroit's offense is one of the two best in the majors. Gary Sheffield should provide power and consistency if he stays healthy all season. Their lineup boasts Pudge, Magglio, Granderson and now Cabrera and Renteria. Top to bottom, this lineup will terrify opposing pitchers all year. Overall, if the Tigers pitchers can turn in even an average showing, their lineup should make them the team to beat in the Central.

Tigers Questions:

1. How many cameramen will Kenny Rogers punch in 2008? (The over/under is 3)
2. Will Bonderman figure out how to get that pesky ERA under 4.00? (Survey says: No)
3. Will a forty-three year old Rogers win fifteen games? (Define “win”)
4. Will the Tigers score at least 900 runs? (Money in the bank)
5. Will the Tigers win the Central? (By at least four games)
6. Will the Tigers win the pennant? (Nope, hitting will get you to October, but you need pitching… and the ability to field a bunt… to win it all)

Cleveland Indians
2007 Finish: 96-66, 1st, Lost to BOS in ALCS
David’s 2008 Prediction: 89-73 (-7) 2nd

Josh’s Analysis:
The Indians surprised everyone last season with their run to the ALCS, coming within one game of the World Series (three times). The Indians spent the off season desperately trying to lock up Sabathia long term, but the twenty-seven year old seems determined to test the free agency waters in 2009. Sabathia is likely to be the hot commodity next winter, but for now he will still anchor a surprisingly strong rotation in Cleveland. The Indians look like they will be suffering from an embarrassment of riches when it comes to starting pitchers this year. Carmona was positively stunning in his first full season as a starter, and if he can continue to deliver, the Indians will have a formidable one-two punch at the top. Paul Byrd enters his third and most likely last, season with the Tribe. The thirty-seven year old junkballer won a respectable fifteen games last year. Westbrook spent nearly two months on the DL with an abdominal strain and turned in a forgettable 6-9, 4.32 season, but the Indians are optimistic that he can be a viable number four guy this year. Highly rated prospects Laffey and Sowers will compete with Lee for the fifth spot, with Lee the early favorite for the job.

Full time DH Travis Hafner had an abysmal showing in 2007 slugging two hundred points below his improbable 2006 campaign that had everyone foaming at the mouth. Most people in baseball are shrugging off last season and saying that the real Hafner will be back this season, but that remains to be seen. Peralta is a serviceable shortstop but a lousy hitter who strikes out more than twice as often as he walks. The Indians let Lofton leave, and in doing so they lost their catalyst at the top of the lineup. The only .300 hitter the Indians had last year was backstop Victor Martinez and the Tribe can look for more of the same this year. Overall the Indians last year were far better than the sum of their parts and that kind of luck rarely translates year to year. Besides, Joe Borowski, the worst closer in baseball, still has “the full faith” of Manager of the Year Eric Wedge. The fact that Borowski had 53 save opportunities is testament to the number of close games the Indians played and that further reinforces my belief that the Indians were more lucky than anything else last season.

Indians Questions:

1. Will Joe Borowski become an elite closer? (Everyone should have a good belly laugh once a day, this one’s on me)
2. Will Hafner bounce back from his horrid 2007? (This is the key to the Indians season, so they better hope so)
3. Will Sabathia and Carmona perform at the levels they did in 2007? (Sabathia might, he’s in a contract year; Carmona is a mystery, but if he doesn’t, the Tribe has no shot)
4. Was 2007 an off year for Grady Sizemore at the beginning of a great career, or were we far too excited after his great 2006? (Odds are he bounces back)
5. Will Westbrook keep his job all season? (Look for Westbrook in the bullpen or as part of a deadline trade, either way, he will not start a game past August 1 for the Indians)
6. Will the Indians make the postseason? (If everything falls into place for them… I hope Shapiro ordered the midges!)

Chicago White Sox
2007 Finish: 72-90, 4th
David’s 2008 Prediction: 79-83 (+7) 3rd

Josh’s Analysis:
The White Sox had all sorts of problems last season; it’s hard to know where to begin. They probably had the worst pitching staff in the majors. Danks had a pathetic rookie outing putting up a 6-13 with a 5.50 ERA, and he wasn’t even the worst on the staff! Contreras went 10-17 with a 5.57 ERA. The lone bright spot for the Sox came in April with Mark Buehrle’s no-hitter.

Just about everything went wrong for Chicago in 2007 and that kind of bad luck is hard to duplicate. Here’s the amazing thing though; as bad as their pitching was, the real problem was their hitting. Yes, you read that right; the White Sox were one of only three teams in the majors, and the only one from the American League to score fewer than 700 runs (Nationals – 673, Giants – 683). Not one player on the team came within twenty points of hitting .300. While GM Kenny Williams missed out on opportunities to pick up Torri Hunter and Miguel Cabrera, the acquisitions of Nick Swisher in center and Orlando Cabrera at short should help. Honestly, just about anyone would have been an improvement over the woeful Juan Uribe. Cuban sensation Alexei Ramirez is expected to be the opening day second baseman and is considered to be a legitimate contender for Rookie of the Year. Thome and Konerko both underperformed last year and should have better showings this season. Luckily for Chicago they share a division with the Royals and the suddenly pathetic Twins. All in all Kenny Williams has taken a page from the Peter Angelos book on running a team; he bankrupted his team’s future for a handful of cosmetic stopgaps when his team has zero chance of competing this season.

White Sox Questions:

1. Will any of the White Sox starting pitchers finish with records over .500? (I suppose one of them might get lucky)
2. Will anyone on the team hit .300? (Konerko or Dye has an outside shot)
3. …or reach 100 RBIs? (See, the problem with RBI’s is that someone usually needs to get on base in front of you!)
4. How long will it take Ozzie Guillen to say something stupid to the press? (When’s opening day?)
5. Will the White Sox make the playoffs? (How many languages can I say no in? No. Nyet. Non. Nein. いいえ. 아니다. 不. Não. αριθ. לא)

Kansas City Royals
2007 Finish: 69-93, 5th
David’s 2008 Prediction: 71-91 (+2) 4th

Josh’s Analysis:
Because the Royals are the definition of irrelevant, I'm not feeling particularly inspired at the moment. If they refuse to make real attempts at competence, why should I have to buckle down for two paragraphs? I no longer think the Royals have an awful GM. He certainly made every effort to improve his team on the free agent market. Therein lies the problem though. There is approximately no chance that the Royals will contend in the next two years so why the hell would you go out and overpay an above average corner outfielder that won’t even be there if and when the Royals are ever good again?!

While I certainly understand the fact that the Royals have to overpay for free agents (essentially a Kansas City tax levied because of how little players want to play for a perennial loser in a boring city) I don’t see why GMs don’t find another path. Hell, take the cash you’re saving by having one of the league’s lowest payrolls and invest in a high yield money market account! When you’ve stocked up enough minor league talent and are actually good again, maybe you’ll be able to afford to compete with the big boys. I can only assume the Rays have been doing this for years (because nothing else makes sense with them). Unless the Royals opt for sacrificing to Jobu under the noses of the KC media contingent (Mark Teahen’s parents; one camera, one tape recorder), they aren’t winning 75 games. I’m not predicting good things.

Royals Questions:

1. Will Gil Meche get that ERA under 4.00 again? (If he does, the Royals should trade him and use the money they save to take everyone on the team out for ice cream)
2. How many Tony Pena stories will sports fans be subjected to when the Yankees play the Royals? (The over/under is 12)
3. Will the Royals finish above .500? (Will Mike Huckabee be the Republican candidate for President?)
4. Does anyone care enough about the AL Central that they are still reading the Royals questions?? (I’m going with no, feel free to tell me I’m wrong in a comment)

Minnesota Twins
2007 Finish: 79-83, 3rd
David’s 2008 Prediction: 66-96 (-13) 5th

Josh’s Analysis:
Twins neophyte GM Bill Smith sat down at a veritable high stakes poker game this off-season. He was dealt just about the fairest hand a first time GM could ask for; a pair of established stars (Mauer and Morneau), a team that was one or two good moves from contention, and the biggest chip at the table (Santana). Smith started out well enough, opting to gamble on controversy magnet Delmon Young. He got a relatively good price for Young from a Tampa Bay team that was desperate to move the former first overall draft pick. He wisely let Torrii hunter seek greener pastures and the Angels obliged by giving him a psychotic contract. But as Kenny Rogers (no, not that one, the other one) says; “You gotta know when to hold ‘em, know when to fold ‘em, know when to walk away… know when to run”.

Smith overplayed his hand on the Santana deal. He forgot the cardinal rule of savvy GM’s; you don’t trade players, you trade contracts. He had one of the game’s best players, but one of the league’s worst contracts. An expiring deal with a no-trade clause that he’d waive for no less than a six year, 120 million dollar extension. Smith was convinced he could pull off a monster haul for Santana, asking for players such as Reyes, Joba, Hughes, Lester and Buchholz during negotiations with the Mets, Yanks and Sox. When the smoke cleared Smith had passed up the best offer he was going to get (Hughes, Melky and a second-tier prospect) and had traded the best pitcher in the game for a handful of nobodies that didn’t even include a can’t-miss prospect. Congratulations Bill, you set the world record for least amount of time between becoming GM and making a trade so bad it was a fire-able offense. Guinness will be contacting you shortly.

The Twins do have a few things going for them this year. Francisco Liriano, the pitcher with the most dominating stuff since the artist-formerly-known-as-Pedro toed the mound, is returning from Tommy John surgery. A healthy Liriano could potentially be the best pitcher in the game. The Twins have a ton of young pitching, but none of them have a particularly high ceiling. I don't like Delmon Young much, he’s a clubhouse cancer and he never walks, but some people think he'll be good and the price was right. Mauer and Morneau should be around for a while, but they won’t be sniffing the playoffs any time soon.

Twins Questions:

1. Will Liriano be dominating from day one? (He'll probably take his lumps early on, but look for the old Liriano by June)
2. Will anyone the Twins got from the Mets be a star? (With a little luck, one of them might even make the opening day roster!)
3. Will Mauer stay healthy all season? (Yea… I’m not too optimistic on this one)
4. Will the Twins offense miss Nick Punto if he doesn't win the starting job? (Not with Adam Everett poised to take his place… the Twinkies went from the worst full time offensive player in the sport to the second worst… baby steps I suppose)
5. Will Delmon Young settle in and be a model citizen? (Sure! He'll also draw a hundred walks, lead the Twins to October… and oh, grow wings!)

AL East Preview

I know you have all been on the edge of your seats waiting anxiously for my baseball preview, so here is part one in my six part series. Teams are profiled in the order I predict they will finish. Before each column David chimes in with his predictions (which don't always agree with mine). We'll start with the powerhouse AL East:

AL EAST

Boston Red Sox
2007 Finish: 96-66, 1st, Def. COL in WS
David’s 2008 Prediction: 98-64 (+2) 2nd (WC)

Josh’s Analysis:
The off season was a whole lot of nothing for the Sox, but oh what exciting nothing. After being involved in all types of trade talks, most notably the Johan Santana saga, the Sox basically chose to stand pat. Considering they won the World Series last year, it is hard to seriously question the strategy. Unfortunately, the recent (or recently announced) Schilling injury reduces the flexibility and insurance the Sox had in their starting rotation. They can't really count on Schilling to pitch at all, (despite their belief that a torn rotator cuff can be rehabbed without surgery) and that leaves them with five guys. These five guys include a theoretical ace, a Japanese disappointment with some upside, a knuckleballer with a bad back who had a terrible second half last year, the uber-prospect with the great change, great curve, and history of laptop theft (yeah, that was probably unfair), and the lefty who beat lymphoma.

I think the Red Sox rotation could be very good if everything works out. But if Beckett's 2008 campaign resembles his 2006 more than his 2007, they have a problem. They are also depending on two kids and a possibly washed up Wakefield. I think Buccholz has ace potential and Lester should be a solid two or three guy, but young guys often take lumps early on. Dice-K showed impressive stuff, but he'll need to show better command, bring that ERA below 4.00, and reduce the number of balls that end up on Lansdowne St. (25 HR allowed in 2007) to be a true number two.

Red Sox Questions (and possible answers):

1. Will their bullpen be able to continue the impressive (non-Gagne) run they showed in 2008? (Maybe)
2. Are the Sox going to be better off now that they have dropped Eric Gagne off at Boston city limits without a map? (Do you hear that soft sobbing coming from the Milwaukee area?)
3. Will the rotation dominate/be sufficient/explode? (I broke my Magic 8 ball on this one)
4. Will the likely decline of Lowell be balanced by a Manny resurgence or a J.D. Drew sighting? (Sure, why not?)
5. Will Ellsbury have enough success to at least balance out Coco Crisp in his first year? (Vote yes on proposition Ellsbury)
6. Will Lugo keep his job the whole year? (As a Yankee fan, I sure hope so)
7. Will Papelpon continue to be inordinately annoying? (Survey says…yes)
8. Will the Red sox beat out the Yankees in the AL East? (Reply hazy, try again)

New York Yankees
2007 Finish: 94-68, 2nd (WC), Lost to CLE in ALDS
David’s 2008 Prediction: 99-63 (+5) 1st

Josh’s Analysis:
The Yankees’ off season basically mirrored the Red Sox off season… in that they did absolutely nothing (in effect at least). Again, it is hard to object too strenuously; the Yanks have a pretty effective mix of aging veterans and young high-ceiling talent. Short of a kidnapping, there weren’t any viable options for the Yanks to improve their woeful bullpen. Adding Santana would certainly have made them a better team in 2008, but the Yankees did not want to give up former number one pitching prospect Phil Hughes, and I cannot fault them for that decision. They were also not particularly excited about giving Santana six or seven years at twenty million per. With Giambi, Farnsworth and Pavano coming off the books after 2008 however, money wasn’t the breaking point, but the Yanks opted to put their faith in their young pitchers and go after Texeira next year. One thing is for certain, Phil Hughes and Johan Santana will be forever linked, for better or for worse.

That said I personally liked the approach. There is something special about seeing the Yanks develop good young talent and sticking with them. The dynasty of the late 90’s was built the same way (Jeter, Rivera, Bernie, Posada, Pettite). I think most fans become more attached to the homegrown kids. Of course, if the kids don’t turn out to be any good, this all pretty much goes right out the window. Joba, Hughes and Kennedy almost certainly won't be the second coming of Maddux, Glavine, and Smoltz, but they do have a good shot at becoming a solid top three anchor for this rotation for years to come.

Yankees Questions (and there are plenty of questions, lemme tell ya):

1. Can Joe Girardi manage to get the production he needs out of the LF/DH/1B rotation while keeping all the players involved happy? (Not going to be an easy task)
2. Will Andy Pettite move on from the annoying steroid controversy and match his 2007 performance? (Quite possibly)
3. Will Wang rebound from his craptacular playoff debacle? (Most likely)
4. Will the bullpen be something other than horrible? (-sigh- will Farnsworth be heavily involved?)
5. Will the Yanks handle Joba correctly? (They’d better freakin’ hope so)
6. Will there be a bona fide Carl Pavano sighting in 2008? (Maybe on the 11 O’clock news)
7. Will the Yankees score at least 900 runs? (YES!)
8. Will Derek Jeter, my favorite Yankee, get to that groundball to his left? (NO!)
9. Will the Yanks edge out the Red Sox in the East? (Reply hazy, try again)

Toronto Blue Jays
2007 Finish: 83-79, 3rd
David’s 2008 Prediction: 88-74 (+5) 3rd

Josh’s Analysis:
I can't imagine I'd be happy to be a Blue Jays fan. They keep making sure they are just good enough to compete but not good enough to be a legitimate playoff threat. Here’s a note to Toronto upper management: eight of the last twelve AL Pennant winners have been from the East. The Yankees and Sox are consistently one and two in money spent, it will take more than cosmetic changes to be a factor in this division. It took an epic collapse by Boston in 2006 to get the Jays a second place finish (still 8 games behind Wild Card winner Detroit). The Blue Jays haven’t made the playoffs since they won it all in 1993. If you combine no October baseball with mediocre draft position every year, you get what I like to call "the worst of both worlds." Alas, the off season doesn't seem to have improved the situation much.

The Jays have the potential for a pretty impressive starting staff. Halladay is an impressive workhorse, and Burnett has ace stuff…but they both need to stay healthy (the odds of which are approximately… -crunches some numbers- ... zero). Dustin McGowan looked very impressive in his first full season, and could be a legit power pitcher for years to come. David Eckstein is the little engine that could; watching him put every ounce of himself into every throw in order to will the ball to first base is always quite a sight (if ever a player didn't have the arm for shortstop, it's him). The Jays traded their oft injured, steroid using, slugging 3rd baseman for a very oft injured, somewhat less slugging 3rd baseman. Advantage…hmmm…journalists who make their living reporting trade rumors? One upside for Toronto is that Vernon Wells’s contract might start looking reasonable considering the crazy contract Torrii Hunter got in free agency….Huzzah!

Blue Jays Questions:

1. Will the starting rotation stay reasonable healthy? (Why would they start now?)
2. Will Vernon Wells bounce back from his abysmal year? (Probably)
3. Will the ball get from Eckstein's hand to first base? (Eventually)
4. Will Rolen stay healthy for a full season? (Surely you jest)
5. Will Rios make the jump to a legit 30-100 player or will he continue to be criminally overrated? (Can’t it be both?)

Tampa Bay (Angelic) Rays
2007 Finish: 66-96, 5th
David’s 2008 Prediction: 70-92 (+4) 4th

Josh’s Analysis:
It is really quite amazing what picking in the top five of the amateur draft for a decade can do for you. Every minor league talent evaluator worth his salt and several of those who aren’t will tell you that the Rays farm system is absolutely stacked. They are the clear leader in minor league talent… but major league talent… not so much. The Rays do look like they are on the rise, though. The question is whether their terrible ballpark and low payroll will hold them back. Again.

A lot went right for the Rays last year, well as much can go right for a 66 win, fifth place team. B.J. Upton finally delivered on the promise that everyone said he had; his swing looks positively A-Rod-ish at times. Carlos Pena went from scrapheap to silver slugger. Kazmir's performance continued to make Mets fans everywhere cry themselves to sleep. Delmon Young defied all reasonable expectations and did not hit anyone with a bat. Some of their young pitchers showed some serious moxie (usually while getting hammered by opposing hitters).

Despite these positives, the Rays still have a long way to go, but the addition of Evan Longoria should help. The third baseman is said to have David Wright potential, and is the early favorite for Rookie of the Year. The Rays traded Delmon Young (who was actually pretty terrible for a corner outfielder last year) for Matt Garza of the Twins. While Garza may be a somewhat lesser prospect, one outfielder needed to go and Young was the clear choice. Several potential star pitchers await their chance to shine. The Rays might just be a team to contend with… in a couple years (at least for Toronto).

Rays Questions:

1. Will Pena repeat his 2007 performance? (Not bloody likely)
2. Will Upton continue to perform at this level? (More bloody likely)
3. Can Kazmir develop into a legit ace? (Sure, now that the Mets have Santana, maybe their fans will finally ease up on the Kazmir voodoo dolls)
4. Will Carl Crawford ever make the jump into the star everyone already thinks he is? (I'm going with no)
5. Will Evan Longoria ever be more famous than Eva Longoria? (NO!)
6. Will Evan Longoria at least win Rookie of the Year? (YES!)
7. Will the Rays finally fight their way out of the AL East cellar? (Now that they have abandoned the Devil, all things are possible)

Baltimore Orioles
2007 Finish: 69-93, 4th
David’s 2008 Prediction: 59-103 (-10) 5th

Josh’s Analysis:
When the topic of the worst franchise in all of sports comes up, as it tends to, I always argue strenuously for the Baltimore Orioles. Considering their impressive history and beautiful ballpark, this is quite the accusation. Obviously, you must take into account the vast difficulties inherent in playing in the AL East, however the Orioles fans have to deal with something the Jays and Rays just don't; the complete and utter lack of hope. Hope is at the core of everything that makes baseball great. In the case of the Orioles, hope is brutally strangled by Peter Angelos on a yearly basis. Angelos is the worst owner in sports (sorry James Dolan…so close). Since I am only devoting a few paragraphs to each team, I don't have the necessary space to properly rant about Peter the Cruel. Yankee fans have been subjected to George Steinbrenner’s meddling for a quarter century. But say what you will about George, he desperately wanted to win and he always did his best to field what he thought was a championship caliber team. That is an owner’s job (besides exploiting everything for profit, that is). An objective look at every move that Angelos and the Orioles’ front office has made in the last twelve years would convince any rational thinker that Angelos has been trying to do the exact opposite.

Despite all expectations, the Orioles seem to have finally made the decision to stop trying to win 70-75 games. It's rebuilding time! I believe that you are either trying to win a championship, rebuilding, or just robbing your fans. It's all part of the whole hope thing. Fans either need hope for the future, or hope right now. Maybe the Orioles finally got the memo.

I suppose I should still mention some substantive things about this likely hundred-loss team. Nick Markakis has a real shot at being one of the best right fielders in baseball over the next decade or so. The Bedard trade was very well done, even if Adam Jones is the only real acquisition; he is a very highly rated prospect. The O’s managed to get the Mariners to throw in an extra prospect when they had already committed to moving Bedard and the M’s were the only serious bidder. The Tejada dump occurred just before the Mitchell Report was released (good freaking timing). They did acquire a nice poo-poo platter of decent guys for him; however, in true Angelos fashion every upside has a bigger downside. The O’s waited one year too long to trade Tejada and were forced to accept thirty cents on the dollar for one of the game’s best shortstops. If the Orioles are committed to rebuilding, they must trade Brian Roberts while he has value. I hear that he is an Angelos favorite, and that might be holding things up. I believe Joe DiMaggio once said "I'd like to thank the good Lord for not making me an Orioles fan" (or something to that effect).

Orioles Questions:

1. Will the Orioles lose 100 games? (Quite likely)
2. Will the O's finally trade Roberts (and perhaps Mora) to complete their rebuilding effort? (Seems a bit too rational, so no)
3. Will I ever watch an Orioles game when they aren't playing the Yankees or Red Sox? (Is there coercion involved? Maybe some money changing hands?)
4. Does hope spring eternal? (Maybe next year?)